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IC 9092 



Bureau of Mines Information Circular/1986 



Application of Employee 
Turnover Research Findings to 
the Underground l\/lining Industry 



By Robert H. Peters 



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 



Information Circular 9092 



Application of Employee 
Turnover Research Findings to 
the Underground Mining Industry 



By Robert H. Peters 




UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 
Donald Paul Model, Secretary 

BUREAU OF MINES 
Robert C. Morton, Director 







Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data 



Peters, Robert H. 

Application of employee turnover research findings to the 
underground mining industry 

(Information circular; 9092) 

Bibliography: p. 29 

Supt. of Docs, no.: I 28.27: 

1. Labor turnover— United States. 2. Coal miners— United States. I. Title, n. Series: 
Information circular (United States. Bureau of Mines); 9092. 

,-IM2aa.^^HF5549.5.T8] 622 s [331.12'6] 86-6] 86-600133 



HI 



CONTENTS 



Page 



Page 



Abstract 1 

Introduction 2 

Review of employee turnover literatvu-e 2 

The Mobley review 3 

The external economy 3 

Organizational variables 3 

Individual variables 4 

Integrative v£iriables 5 

Individual nonwork variables 6 

Comparison of recent turnover research 

with Mobley's observations 6 

Labor market variables 6 

Organizational variables 6 

Individual variables 7 

Integrative variables 8 

Methodological and interpretive issues 

in turnover research 8 

Measurement of turnover 10 

Average length of service 10 

Crude turnover rates 11 



Stability and instability rates 12 

Survival and wastage rates 12 

Use of measures 13 

Characteristics of the mining industry and 

its workforce 14 

A model of the turnover process for 

underground miners 16 

Recommendations for controlling miner 

turnover 18 

Recruitment, selection, and early 

socialization 19 

Job content 19 

Compensation practices 20 

Leadership and supervision 21 

Career planning and practices 21 

Summary and conclusions 22 

References 23 

Appendix— Research studies on employee 

turnover published since 1981 25 



ILLUSTRATION 



1. Causal model of miner turnover. 



17 



TABLES 



1. An interpretive summary of research on causes and correlates of turnover 

2. Summary of research on causes and correlates of turnover published since 1981 . 



IV 



UNIT OF MEASURE ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THIS REPORT 



°F degree Fahrenheit pet percent 

h hour yr year 



APPLICATION OF EMPLOYEE TURNOVER RESEARCH 
FINDINGS TO THE MINING INDUSTRY 



By Robert H. Peters^ 



ABSTRACT 

Several significant problems associated with employee turnover among underground 
miners are described in this Bureau of Mines report. Although a vast amount of research 
has been conducted on tvimover among employees in nonmining industries, there has never 
been an attempt to empirically investigate the causes of turnover among underground 
miners. This report presents the results of empirical research on employee turnover in 
other industries and describes and critiques the research methods that have been used 
to investigate turnover. Using the findings on employee turnover in other industries and 
known data about miners and the mining industry, a conceptual model of the factors that 
cause turnover among miners was generated. This model, which is expected to provide 
a basis for later empirical studies, is presented. Several recommendations for controlling 
miner tiirnover are also presented. 



'Research psychologist, Pittsburgh Research Center, Bureau of Mines, Pittsburgh, PA. 



INTRODUCTION 



Various researchers have noted that high turnover 
results in accidents and injuries (i-2).^ The inexperience of 
newly hired workers and their unfamiliarity with the work 
environment are usually cited as the major reasons for the 
losses that accompany high turnover. In addition to ac- 
cidents, the consequences of high turnover also include 
lower productivity, spoilage (supply waste), lower morale, 
and higher costs of training and personnel administration 
(3). 

Johansen (4) argues that high labor turnover is a ma- 
jor reason for the fact that accidents in underground coal 
mines throughout the Western United States are unusual- 
ly high in number and severity. Given the unusually 
hazardous nature of underground work, it is particularly 
important to minimize employee turnover at underground 
mines. High turnover results in a work force that is, on the 
whole, less experienced; and the less experience miners 
have, the greater is the chance they will cause accidents 
and injiu*ies. 

High tvu-nover also causes unusually difficult produc- 
tion problems for underground coal mines. There are several 
reasons why turnover is a greater threat to productivity in 
underground coal mining than in other industries. Good- 
man (5) notes that the technology and environment of 
underground coal mining make it especially difficult to 
predict what will happen in the course of day-to-day work. 
The inherent physical conditions create this uncertainty 
and represent a major factor in the production process. The 
layout and darkness make it difficult for supervisors to 
review the work of their subordinates. The technology of 
mining requires a high degree of interdependence within 
and among crews. If one machine fails, often the whole pro- 
duction process must be shut down. Since the mining cycle 
extends over the shift cycle, there must be good coordina- 



tion between shifts. Shifts or crews are evaluated in terms 
of their productivity, so there is a tendency to focus on in- 
creasing a crew's productivity. This may lead to intercrew 
conflict and lower production. There is also a high in- 
terdependence between the inside section and the outside. 
Failure to bring in the right supplies can lead to long 
downtimes because travel in and out of a section can take 
an hour or more. Without adequate planning, there can be 
a lot of downtime and production can be lost. 

In summary, the environment and technology of min- 
ing necessitate a high degree of coordination between 
miners and highly predictable miner behavior. High turn- 
over can seriously hamper production because the newly 
hired miner is likely to be unfamiliar with the environment, 
the behavior of coworkers, and possibly the equipment and 
procedures that are used. New miners are more apt to in- 
advertently do things that cause production delays, ac- 
cidents, and various other t5T)es of losses. 

The Bureau of Mines conducted this study of the causes 
for miners' turnover because (1) the potential for reducing 
accidents and labor costs through the reduction of turnover 
appears to be great, and (2) there have been no systematic 
attempts to study the causes of miner turnover. 

Since there have been no systematic attempts to study 
the cause of miner turnover, the first phase of this study 
was to review and summarize what is already known about 
employee turnover based on empirical research in nonmin- 
ing industries. The second phase was to generate a model 
of the factors that produce turnover among underground 
miners. Therefore, this report presents (1) a summary and 
critique of the empirical research on employee turnover, (2) 
a model of the turnover process for underground miners, 
and (3) recommendations for controlling miner turnover. 



REVIEW OF EMPLOYEE TURNOVER LITERATURE 



Studies of employee turnover from work organizations 
abound in the literature on organizational behavior and in- 
dustrial psychology. Beginning with the early studies of 
Bernays (6) and Crabb (7), and continuing to the present, 
well over 1,200 separate studies on the subject can be iden- 
tified. Moreover, over the last 25 yr, at least 13 review ar- 
ticles on turnover have appeared (8-20). Clearly, the sub- 
ject has not been neglected by researchers. 

Economic Costs 

Continued attempts to better explain and control turn- 
over are understandable due to the financial costs associated 
with turnover. Estimates of the costs of recruiting and 
assimilating new employees into the work situation made 
before the economic inflationary spiral of the late 1970's 
suggested that such expenses ranged from $1,000 for clerks 
(21) to $300,000 for jet fighter pilots (22). A set of reports 
which focused only on the replacement cost directly 
associated with hiring new employees (and not with train- 
ing) found that this expense was $1,018 for a registered 



'Italic numbers in parentheses refer to items in the list of references 
preceding the appendix. 



nurse (23), $800 for a first-line supervisor (24), and ranged 
from $145 for clerks to $990 for college graduates in the 
public sector (25). More recently, Seybolt (26) has estimated 
that the cost of replacing even the lowest level employee 
in an organization will usually exceed $3,000. 

The significance of these costs becomes greater in light 
of a 1979 job tenure report that about 30 pet of the 91 million 
Americans employed in January 1978 were on jobs they had 
found during the prior year (27). While this figure was par- 
tially influenced by such factors as a high level of unemploy- 
ment and the large flow of youth and women into the work 
force, the fact remains that making a job change is not par- 
ticularly unusual for the American worker. In the manufac- 
turing industry alone, the turnover rate was estimated to 
be about 50 pet in 1975, a percentage that had remained 
fairly constant over the prior^ decade (28). Thus, with a 
substantial level of mobility, the significance of the total 
replacement costs for employees becomes substantial. The 
financial considerations alone -underscore the importance 
of understanding determinants of turnover. While attempts 
to predict and understand this type of employee withdrawal 
have been made and reported for at least the last 70 yr, the 
problem continues to persist in large enough magnitude to 
not only justify, but to require, further research efforts. 



Varieties of Turnover 

Price {17, p. 3) defines turnover as the degree of in- 
dividual movement across the membership of a social 
system. Labor economists, such as Parnes (29), distinguish 
seven t5rpes of "movement": 

1. Interfirm movement, from one firm to another or a 
change of employer. 

2. Occupational movement, from one occupation to 
another. 

3. Industrial movement, from one industry to another. 

4. Greographic movement, from one local area to 
another. 

5. Movement from an unemployed to an employed 
status. 

6. Movement from an employed to an unemployed 
status. 

7. Movement into and out of the labor force. 



Turnover corresponds to Parnes' "interfirm movement" and 
thus is one type of labor mobility. 

Voluntary and involuntary turnover are commonly 
distinguished. Voluntary turnover is individual movement 
across the membership boundary of a social system that is 
initiated by the individual (30). The term "quits" is prob- 
ably the most frequent label for volimtary turnover. "Quits" 
and "resignations" are generally used interchangeably. In- 
voluntary turnover is movement not initiated by the in- 
dividual; exaimples are dismissals, layoffs, retirements, and 
deaths. 

Most involuntary turnover is probably initiated by the 
organization. Dismissals, layoffs, and retirements are ex- 
amples of organizationally initiated turnover. It is possi- 
ble, however, for turnover to be initiated by neither the 
member nor the organization. An example might be a wife 
who leaves her job at her husband's insistence. Involuntary 
tiu"nover is best viewed as a residual concept that refers 
to all movement not initiated by the member. Although 
there are difficult methodological problems involved in 
distinguishing voluntary and involuntary turnover, the 
distinction continues to be important in the literature. 

Voluntary turnover is more often studied than involun- 
tary turnover. There are at least three reasons for the con- 
centration on voluntary turnover. First, most turnover is 
voluntary. The major exception is the high rate of involun- 
tary turnover when unemployment is high (31 , pp. 65-72). 
Second, the formation of theory is easier when the phenome- 
non to be explained is homogeneous. The division of turn- 
over into two types results in the formation of one fairly 
homogenous type— voluntary turnover. It would be very dif- 
ficult to explain both quits and dismissals by the same 
theory, because the two phenomena probably have quite dif- 
ferent determinants. By assigning dismissals to involun- 
tary tiu"nover, the homogeneity of volvmtary turnover is con- 
siderably increased, and the task of forming theory is made 
somewhat easier. Third, voluntary turnover is more sub- 
ject to control by managers. Retirements and deaths are less 
easily controlled than quits. And it is natural for managers 
to focus their attention on phenomena they can control to 
some degree. 

When turnover is discussed in the literature, the usual 
reference is to voluntary separation. Substantive findings, 
such as those pertaining to the determinants of turnover, 
usually refer to voluntary separations. This review reflects 
the literatiu-e's emphasis on voluntary separations. Unless 



otherwise indicated, "tiu-nover" refers to individuals who 
voluntarily leave organizations. 

As previously indicated, several detailed reviews of the 
employee turnover literature have recently been publish- 
ed. Much of this section is devoted to discussing the most 
recent comprehensive review, by Mobley {32). However, con- 
clusions from three other recent reviews of this literatiu-e 
are occasionally interjected {16-1 7, 33). After the discussion 
of Mobley 's review, significant findings from 14 studies on 
turnover published since the Mobley review are presented. 
A brief description of each of these 14 studies is given in 
the appendix. The section concludes by comparing the most 
recent findings (those published since 1981) with Mobley's 
observations. 



THE MOBLEY REVIEW 

Mobley groups the many variables that have been 
used to empirically account for turnover into four major 
categories: economic indexes, variables that characterize 
jobs and organizations, variables that characterize people, 
and integrative variables. Integrative variables are those 
which represent the combined influence of more than one 
of the three preceding types of variables. 

The External Economy 

There is abundant evidence that the state of the 
economy (as indexed by the availability of jobs) affects turn- 
over rates. As unemployment goes up, the quit rate goes 
down. It is important to recognize that this relationship is 
based on highly aggregated data. Mobley notes that overall 
unemployment as a predictor fails to account for occupa- 
tional differences in labor market demand. This means that 
an organization should not rely too heavily on national 
unemployment rates for turnover prediction, but should 
assess the relationship between employment and unemploy- 
ment in its specific labor markets and turnover among its 
employees. Mobley contends that effective understanding 
and management of turnover requires analysis of 
individual-level variables and cautions that aggregate 
analyses of economic and labor market correlates' of turn- 
over rates do not address the question of which individuals 
will leave. To predict turnover at the individual level of 
analysis, it is necessaiy to assess how individuals perceive 
the availability of jobs. 

Organizational Variables 

This section summarizes the sizable literature on rela- 
tionships between organizational variables and turnover. 
The focus is on categorical and descriptive characteristics 
of organizations. Satisfaction with various organizational 
variables and other attitudinal variables are discussed in 
the section on individual variables. 

Occupational Categories 

Mobley notes that the Price review {1 7) suggests that 
turnover is higher among (1) blue-collar workers than 



'As used in this report, "correlates" refers to factors (e.g., age) that have 
been found to be statistically associated with whether or not employees have 
remained with their employer during some period of time. Although cor- 
relates provide a basis for drawing conclusions about how likely it is that 
employees will leave, they do not necessarily help explain why certain 
employees (e.g., younger ones) are more likely to leave than others. 



among white-collar workers, (2) lower skill levels within the 
blue-collar category, and (3) nonmanagerial categories. 
However, Price cautions that these generalizations are 
based on only a very small niunber of studies and may not 
hold true in all segments of the population. 

Organizational Size 

Empirically, the research on turnover and organiza- 
tional size supports no clear-cut conclusion. Conceptually, 
one might expect increasing size to be associated with lower 
turnover, since larger organizations might have more in- 
ternal mobility opportunities, sophisticated personnel selec- 
tion and human resource management processes, more com- 
petitive compensation systems, and personnel research ac- 
tivities devoted to turnover. Conversely, larger organiza- 
tions might be expected to experience higher turnover due 
to communication problems, lower group cohesion, and 
greater impersonalization and bureaucratization. 

Work-Unit Size 

Mobley notes that work-unit size is possibly related to 
turnover through other variables such as group cohesion, 
personalization and communication. There is some evidence 
that smaller work units have lower turnover, particularly 
at the blue-collar level. However, because there have been 
relatively few studies analyzing unit size, either singular- 
ly or in combination with other possible explanatory 
variables, a strong generalization is not possible. 

Pay 

Researchers have established that there is a strong rela- 
tionship between pay levels and tm-nover rates. The relative 
level of earnings is one of the most important factors ac- 
counting for inter-industry variations in voluntary separa- 
tion rates. However, Mobley cautions that the aggregate 
correlation between pay levels and turnover rates does not 
in itself indicate which individuals will leave. To under- 
stand turnover at the individual level of analysis, one must 
consider issues of equity in pay administration, individual 
differences with respect to the importance of pay, and the 
effects of performance-contingent or noncontingent pay 
systems. Mobley also notes that researchers have an insuf- 
ficient understanding of the substitutability of benefits or 
other rewards for pay or interaction of pay with other 
organizational factors such as supervisory style and job con- 
tent; nonjob factors such as compatibility with nonwork 
roles; and individual factors such as willingness to defer 
immediate gratification or rewards, commitment, etc. 

Job Content 

There appear to be relationships between turnover and 
certain job characteristics at aggregated levels of analysis. 
Price (17) indicates that there is a weak but consistent 
positive relationship between routinization and turnover. 
Porter (16) found support for a positive relationship between 
task repetitiveness and turnover and a negative relation- 
ship linking autonomy and responsibility to turnover. 
Mobley cautions that workers' responses to job content are 
a function of individual differences. This means it is more 
important to look at job content variables from an individual 
level of analysis. 



Supervisory Style 

Ley (34) found a strong correlation between foreperson 
authoritarianism and turnover among production workers. 
Saleh (35) found that the lack of supervisory consideration 
is the second most frequently cited reason for termination 
among nurses. Fleishman (36) observed that turnover was 
highest in work groups whose foreperson was inconsiderate. 
Mobley concludes that there is some support for a relation- 
ship between supervisory style and turnover. 

Other Organizational Variables 

Price (17) suggests that centralization (the degree to 
which power is centralized in a social system) produces 
higher levels of turnover and that integration (the extent 
of participation in primary relationships) and communica- 
tion (the degree to which information is transmitted among 
members of a social system) produce lower levels of volun- 
tary tm-nover. 



Individual Variables 

This section svmimarizes the voluminous literature on 
the relationships between individual variables and tur- 
nover. These individual-level correlates of turnover include 
demographic and personal factors, work and nonwork 
values, and perceptions and evaluations of the organization. 

Age 

Reviewers of the turnover literatxu-e report a consistent 
negative relationship between age and tenure— younger 
employees have higher probability of leaving. Mobley sug- 
gests several explanations for this relationship. Younger 
employees may have more entry-level job opportunities and 
few family responsibilities, thus making job mobility easier. 
They may also have inaccurate expectations regarding work 
that are not fulfilled in their early jobs. 

Length of Service 

As with age, reviewers of the turnover literature report 
a consistent negative relationship between length of ser- 
vice and turnover. Turnover is significantly higher for 
employees with shorter tenures. Mobley cites the interac- 
tion with age, inadequate match between job and individual, 
and inadequate early socialization as among the probable 
reasons for this relationship. 



Sex 



No simple relationship exists between sex of the 
employee and tiu-nover. Mobley suggests that sex probably 
interacts with other variables as do occupation and family 
responsibility. 

Education 

Neither a strong nor a consistent rel itionship between 
education and turnover is evident. Mobley notes that since 
many turnover studies are based on individuals with similar 
educations, a relationship between turnover and education 
is difficult to establish. 



Biographical Information 



Satisfaction With Coworkers 



Research indicates that the development of situation- 
specific turnover predictors, based on weighted biographical 
data, can be a useful empirical technique. 

Personality Variables 

Porter (16) claims that the literature on turnover and 
personality variables suggests that people who leave the 
organization tend to be at the extreme end of such personali- 
ty factors as achievement, aggression, independence, and 
self-confidence. However, Mobley and Muchinsky (33) 
believe that personality differences have a marginal impact 
on turnover. 

Job Aptitude and Ability 

Both the Porter {16) and Muchinsky (33) reviews con- 
clude that the more similar job requirements and vocational 
interests are, the lower the turnover rate is. However, these 
conclusions are based on a very limited amount of research. 
There is evidence in the literature that aptitude and abil- 
ity measures are related to txu-nover. Although the nature 
and magnitude of the reported relationships vary, Mobley 
recommends that organizations do try to use job-relevant 
aptitude and ability measures as predictors of tmnover. 

Source of Referral 

Although there is not much research on the issue, 
available evidence suggests that the applicant's source of 
referral is an important predictor of turnover. Applicants 
referred by informal sources such as employees or relatives 
may have lower turnover than applicants referred by more 
formal sources such as employment agencies and advertis- 
ing. Mobley suggests it is possible that applicants from in- 
formal sources have more accurate information and expec- 
tations about the job. 

Performance Level 

Mobley reports that only a few studies have examined 
the relationship between performance level and turnover 
and concludes that the findings on this issue are mixed. 

Satisfaction With Pay 

The literature reveals a generally consistent negative 
relationship between turnover and pay satisfaction. 
However, Mobley found a few exceptions, and advises 
against taking this relationship as a given in every 
situation. 

Satisfaction With Promotion 

Porter (16) found that the lack of promotional oppor- 
tunities is a primary stated reason for withdrawal. 
However, both Price and Mobley found some exceptions to 
this relationship, and note that, without knowing an in- 
dividual's career aspirations and opportunities for promo- 
tion, the predictive power of satisfaction with promotion 
may be diminished. 

Satisfaction With Job Content 

Mobley concludes that satisfaction with job content is 
among the strongest satisfaction correlates of turnover in 
recent research. 



There is only moderate empirical evidence to support 
a relationship between coworker satisfaction and turnover. 
Mobley suggests that measures of coworker relationships 
and satisfaction may be too crude. Coworker relationships 
have multiple dimensions and reflect task requirements, 
individual differences, and instrumental and personal 
relations. 

Satisfaction With Supervision 

There is much evidence that satisfaction with supervi- 
sion can be related to turnover, although there are a nimaber 
of exceptions in the literature. Mobley observes that 
research needs to move beyond general leader-satisfaction 
ratings to deal with specific types of leader-subordinate 
interactions. 

Satisfaction With Working Conditions 

In a national survey, Mangione (37) found a significant 
relationship linking resource adequacy and satisfaction 
with comfort to turnover. Except for this study, there is no 
strong evidence that working conditions are among the most 
important contributors to turnover. 

Career Aspirations and Expectations 

To completely understand turnover, it is necessary to 
evaluate employees' expectations concerning their future 
jobs with the organization— that is, the individual's assess- 
ment of whether or not his or her present job will be in- 
strumental in attaining career aspirations. Relatively lit- 
tle research has been devoted to analyzing turnover in terms 
of congruence between the organization and long-range in- 
dividual career aspirations. Career aspirations are subject 
to change. Thus, this congruence cannot be considered to 
be a constant. 

Expectancy of Finding an Alternative Job 

While unemployment level is a good aggregate predic- 
tor, it is inadequate at the individual level. Individuals have 
a differential knowledge of alternatives. To understand the 
individual's perspective, it is important to know the in- 
dividual employee's expectancy of finding an alternative 
job. Mobley reports that several studies have examined 
employee expectancy of finding an alternative job and found 
it to be significantly although not strongly related to turn- 
over. Mobley lists several possible reasons why the relation- 
ship is not stronger. 

Integrative Variables 

A nimiber of variables have been suggested in attempts 
to integrate individual differences and perceptions of 
various aspects of the organization and/or the external en- 
vironment. Evidence concerning the relationship of three 
such variables (overall job satisfaction, organizational com- 
mitment, and intentions to stay or quit) to turnover is 
reviewed in this section. 

Overall Job Satisfaction 

The literature clearly shows a consistent negative rela- 
tionship between job satisfaction and turnover. However, 



the correlations are rarely stronger than -0.4. Thus, other 
variables are needed to predict individual-level turnover. 
At a minimum, perceived alternative jobs must also be 
considered. 

Orgaaizational Commitment 

Organizational commitment has been defined as the 
relative strength of an individual's identification with and 
involvement in a particular organization. There is strong 
evidence that commitment is related to turnover. There is 
also evidence that commitment is a better predictor of turn- 
over than satisfaction. Mobley concludes that, both concep- 
tujilly and empirically, commitment is one of the important 
individual-level determinants of turnover. 

Intentions To Quit or Stay 

Measures of behavioral intention to quit appear to be 
among the best individual-level predictors of turnover. 
Mobley strongly recommends the periodic assessment of 
behavioral intentions to quit, and correlates of these inten- 
tions, as a forecasting and diagnostic approach. 

Individual Nonwork Variables 

Most turnover research dealing with nonwork variables 
has focused on what is generally labeled "family respon- 
sibilities." This is a complex factor measured in a variety 
of ways, including the number and ages of children, marital 
status, etc. Muchinsky (33) suggests there is a positive rela- 
tionship between family responsibility and turnover but 
that this relationship is moderated by whether the employee 
is the primary or secondary wage earner. Mobley predicts 
that, as dual-career families become more prevalent, as non- 
work values become more central, and as more young peo- 
ple attach less importance to a stable and secure career, 
prediction and understanding of turnover will require in- 
clusion of nonwork variables. 

Multivariate Analyses 

Analyses of tiu-nover using one variable at a time do 
not permit evaluation of the relationships among the many 
variables related to turnover, identification of the relative 
importance of these variables, or the more accurate predic- 
tion of tiu*nover that is possible when several relevant 
variables are used. Unfortunately, most studies of turnover 
have examined only one variable other than turnover at 
a time. However, there are a few exceptions. Mobley draws 
several conclusions from these studies. First, while job 
satisfaction is an important contributor to turnover, it does 
not include the effects of other relevant demographic," at- 
titudinal, or cognitive variables. Second, demographic 
variables are an inadequate basis for understanding tiu-n- 
over. Third, behavioral intentions to quit or stay appear to 
be potent variables, conceptually and empirically. However, 
the fact that intentions and tiu-nover are far from perfect- 
ly correlated suggests the need for better measurement and 
a continued search for other variables and processes. 

Mobley's conclusions regarding the causes and cor- 
relates of tiu"nover are summarized in table 1 (repro- 
duced from Mobley 32, pp. 112-113). 



'Demographic factors consist of characteristics, whether personal (such as 
age or educational background), family-related (such as number of 
dependents), or social (such as socioeconomic or geographic background), that 
describe the individual independent of his or her job. They are differentiated 
fi'om factors such as work attitudes, economic and market factors, organiza- 
tional factors, etc. 



Table 1 . — An interpretative summary of research on causes 
and correlates of turnover 

Interpretive 
Variables, by category assessment 

Labor market: 

Inflation Inconclusive. 

Level of unemployment Consistent. 

Organizational: 

Autonomy and responsibility Moderate. 

Centralization Do. 

Communication Do. 

Integrative Do. 

Organizational size Inconclusive. 

Pay levels Consistent. 

Routinization and task repetitiveness Moderate. 

Supervisory style Do. 

Type of industry Inconclusive. 

Work-unit size Moderate. 

Individual: 

Absenteeism Inconclusive. 

Age Consistent. 

Aptitude and ability Moderate. 

Career expectations Inconclusive. 

Education Do. 

Family responsibility Moderate. 

Interests Do. 

Performance Inconclusive. 

Personality Do. 

Professionalism Do. 

Satisfaction with — 

Conditions of work Moderate. 

Coworkers Do. 

Job content Consistent. 

Pay Moderate. 

Promotion Do. 

Supervisor Do. 

Sex Inconclusive. 

Tenure Consistent. 

integrative: 

Behavioral intentions to quit Do. 

Organizational commitment Do. 

Overall satisfaction Consistent. 

Stress Inconclusive. 

Source: Mobley {32). 

COMPARISON OF RECENT TURNOVER 
RESEARCH WITH MOBLEY'S OBSERVATIONS 

Table 2 siunmarizes the results of 14 empirical studies 
of turnover published after the Mobley review was con- 
ducted. The variables listed in this table have been grouped 
into the same foiu- major categories as Mobley used in his 
table (table 1), i.e., labor market, organizational, individual, 
and integrative. 

Labor Market Variables 

Only one study from the more recent literature ad- 
dressed the relationship of labor market variables to turn- 
over. Terborg (38) found a significant negative relationship 
between the local unemployment rate and turnover among 
sales clerks. This finding is consistent with Mobley's sum- 
marization of earlier research on the unemployment- 
turnover relationship. 

Organizational Variables 

The Krackhardt study (39) supports Mobley's observa- 
tion that supervisory style is related to turnover. 
Krackhardt found that increased communication between 
supervisors and subordinates was associated with reduced 
turnover among bank tellers. The negative relationship be- 
tween job scope and turnover reported by Mowday (40) tends 
to support Mobley's conclusion that turnover tends to be 
positively associated with routinization and task repeti- 
tiveness. The two studies examining the effect of job 
previews on turnover report opposite results. Avner (41) 
claims that most research suggests that realistic job 
previews have a small positive (but not always significant) 
impact on turnover. 



Table 2. — Summary of research on causes and correlates of turnover 
published since 1981 



Variables, 
by category 



Sample 



Direction of 




association' 


Reference 


- 


38 


_ 


40 


— 


43 


+ 


78 


- 


41 


- 


39 


+ 


46 


-1 


45 


— 


38 


— 


43 


-1 


44 


+ 


38 


+ 


46 


+ 


38 


- 


80 


+ 


44 


+1 


47 


+1 


44 


+ 


46 


- 


40 


— 


40 


+ 


80 


— 


43 


— 


46 


- 


81 


+ 


42 


-i 


44 


+ 


42 


— 


42 


-1 


44 


— 


42 


-1 


44 


— 


42 


-1 


44 


-1 


47 


-1 


44 


-1 


44 


—1 


44 


- 


42 


_ 


42 


— 


79 


-1 


47 


+ 


46 


+ 


, 79 


+ 


80 


+ 


46 


+i 


45 


+i 


44 



Labor market: Local unemployment rate. . 
Organizational: 

Job scope 

Level of job 

Preview 

Realism of job 

Supervisor-subordinate communication . 
Individual: 

Absenteeism 

Age 

Aptitude and ability 

Competitiveness 

Education and/or training 

Enthusiasm 

Extent of job market investigation 

Healtfi problems 

Lack of children 

Need for achievement 

Need for autonomy 

Perceived job opportunity 

Performance level 

Satisfaction with — 

Compensation 

Compensation system equity 

Coworkers 

Job security 

Opportunity for family-social activities. 
Supervision 

Work (job) 

Work space and equipment 

Tenure 

Worker trust 

Integrative: 
Commitment 

Intent to leave 

Job stress 



Sales clerks 

County and State agencies 

Exxon Corp 

Bank tellers 

Gas station cashiers 

Bank tellers 

Manufacturing plant 

Nurses' aides 

Sales clerks 

Exxon Corp 

Public utility 

Sales clerks 

Manufacturing plant 

Sales clerks 

Nurses 

Public utility 

Professionals 

Public utility 

Manufacturing plant 

County and State agencies 

.. do 

Nurses 

Exxon Corp 

Manufacturing plant 

Bank tellers 

Aerospace production department . . . . 

Public utility 

Aerospace production department . . . . 
Aerospace nonproduction department. 

Public utility 

Aerospace company 

Public utility 

Aerospace company 

Public utility 

Professionals 

Public utility 

Public utility 

.. do 

Aerospace company 

.. do 

Nursing and clerical 

Professionals 

Manufacturing plant 

Nursing and clerical 

Nurses 

Manufacturing plant 

Nurses' aides 

Public utility 



'-I- = positive association with dependent variable. 
- = negative association with dependent variable. 

i = employee's intent to leave organization (although study did not assess whether the employee actually remained or left during some subsequent 
period). The strength of the association of each variable listed with turnover or turnover intent was statistically significant at p = <0.05. 



Individual Variables 

Except for findings reported by Bardo (42) concerning 
satisfaction with compensation and coworkers, recent 
research generally supports Mobley's observations that 
turnover is negatively related to employees' satisfaction 
with various aspects of their jobs. In contrast to Mobley's 
conclusion that aptitude and ability are negatively related 
to turnover, Terborg (38) found that among sales clerks, 
ability was positively associated with their tendency to 
leave the organization. However, findings by Dreher {43) 
and Zedeck (44) tend to support Mobley. The discrepancy 
between the Terborg study and most other reseeirch on abili- 
ty may be due to differences in the job levels of the 
employees studied. Perhaps predictions about employee 
turnover cannot be based solely on ability level, but need 
to be made contingent upon whether the employees under 
consideration hold low- or high-level positions. 



There is a minor discrepancy between Mobley's obser- 
vations and recent research examining the relationship of 
performance level to turnover. Mobley characterizes the 
evidence concerning this relationship as inconclusive. 
However, several recent studies report finding a significant 
negative relationship between these two variables (43, 46, 
81). Jackofsky (48) argues that there is a relationship be- 
tween performance and turnover, but that it is nonlinear. 
She believes the relationship is curvilinear. Jackofsky main- 
tains that (1) very low performers are pushed out by the 
organization; (2) low but adequate performers (who are 
allowed to remain on the job) stay due to low ease of move- 
ment; and (3), as performance increases, turnover increases 
due to increases in the ease of movement. 

Recent research concerning age, tenure, family respon- 
sibility, and perceived job opportunities tends to support 
Mobley's observations concerning the relationship of these 
variables to turnover (i.e., that age, tenure, and family 



responsibility are all negatively related to turnover; and 
that perceived job opportunities is positively related to 
turnover). 

integrative Variables 

Recent findings concerning the relationship of turnover 
to organizational commitment and intention to quit are con- 



gruent with Mobley's observations. However, Mobley 
characterizes the evidence concerning the relationship of 
stress to turnover as inconclusive, whereas all three recent 
studies of this issue suggest that greater stress is associated 
with higher turnover (44-46). 



METHODOLOGICAL AND INTERPRETIVE ISSUES IN TURNOVER RESEARCH 



Several methodological problems are common to much 
of the research on turnover that has been conducted thus 
far. These methodological problems should be avoided in 
futiu-e research whenever possible. In addition, several 
mistakes are commonly made in interpreting the findings 
of turnover research. Both managers and researchers must 
be careful in interpreting the findings of turnover research 
in order to avoid making faulty conclusions about what 
causes turnover or how to prevent it. Both sets of issues are 
addressed below. 

Definition and Measurement of Variables 

Several authors note that turnover data taken fi*om com- 
pany records may not be entirely accurate. A variety of fac- 
tors influence the administratively recorded reason for at- 
trition. Lefkowitz {49) foimd significant differences between 
the administrative and self-reported reasons for termina- 
tions. Ilgen {50) and Latham {51) have commented on the 
likelihood of himaan error in recording absence as turnover. 
Since many studies have employed eirchival data in turn- 
over research, it seems reasonable to conclude that turn- 
over data is afflicted by an indeterminable amount of 
measurement error, such as mistaking absence for turnover. 
Mobley {13) suggests that, whenever possible, researchers 
should not rely on a single method for measuring turnover 
or the factors thought to influence turnover, but should use 
multiple measures. 

There are many ways to operationally define turnover. 
These definitions and their limitations are presented in 
detail in a later section. Muchinsky {33) notes that many 
authors neglect to describe how they measvired turnover. 
This makes it difficult to interpret their findings or com- 
pare them to the findings of other turnover studies. 

As previously mentioned, most turnover researchers 
agree that it is important to distinguish between voluntary 
and involuntary turnover in attempting to predict tiu-nover 
because the types of factors that produce these two types 
of separation are typically quite different. 

Timeframe for Observation of Turnover 

Some researchers try to predict the turnover that will 
occur within a few months after data on predictor variables 
have been collected; others have observed turnover for a 
few years and then attempted to assess its relationship to 
the predictor variables. Most researchers agree that the 
more time that goes by after data on predictor variables 
have been collected, the worse will be their ability to predict. 
Almost all factors that are used as predictors are dynamic— 
they change with the passage of time. For example, a model 
might predict that persons who are not happy with their 



present jobs will be more likely to leave than those who are 
happy with their jobs. However, actual data might fail to 
confirm this prediction, because after the employees' job 
satisfaction was assessed, but while the data were still be- 
ing collected, changes affecting satisfaction occurred (e.g., 
a new supervisor or company policy). The longer the period 
of data collection, the more likely such changes will occur, 
and the less likely it is that the data will produce valid con- 
clusions. However, in order to have enough terminations 
to perform appropriate statistical tests of hjT)otheses, it is 
sometimes necessary to collect turnover data over long 
periods of time. 

Subgroups Requiring Use of Different Models 

Mobley suggests that it may be necessary to use dif- 
ferent models to explain turnover among employees with 
different lengths of service. He states, "Different variables 
or combinations of variables exert a differential influence 
on turnover as a function of the employee's stage in the 
organization socialization process." Muchinsky {33) makes 
a similar argument regarding the employee's sex and race. 
Because the variables that best predict turnover among 
females may not be the same as those that best predict the 
turnover of male employees, turnover among these two sets 
of employees should not be analyzed using a single model. 
The researcher may need to develop septu-ate models and 
separate the data according to sex before proceeding with 
analyses. Shott {52), and Kilbridge {53) were able to improve 
their predictive ability by performing separate analyses on 
the basis of sex. Similarly, improvements in predictive abili- 
ty have also been obtained by performing separate analyses 
on the basis of racial differences {54-58). 

Nonlinear Relationships 

Mobley argues that certain variables may be related to 
turnover in a nonlinear fashion. For example, Jackofsky 
{48) presents convincing arguments for a nonlinear relation- 
ship between level of job performance and turnover. (This 
is discussed further in a later section.) Because there is a 
good chance that other such nonlinear relationships exist, 
researchers should not ignore the testing of interaction 
terms in their data analyses. 

Nonwork Interests, Values, and Constraints 

Steers {59) and Mobley (32), argue that nonwork 
variables are often ignored in turnover models. They believe 
that factors such as an employee's ties to activities and 
social groups in the community, or the constraints imposed 
by the csireer of an employee's spouse, can greatly influence 



the likelihood that the employee will or will not remain with 
an employer, and that consideration of factors such as these 
would greatly increase the predictive power of turnover 
models. 



Need for Research Involving Process Models 

The turnover literature is largely characterized by 
studies that look at turnover and one other variable at a 
time. Such analyses do not permit evaluation of the rela- 
tionships among the many variables related to turnover, 
identification of the relative importance of these variables, 
or the more acciu-ate prediction of turnover that is possible 
when several relevant variables are used. More adequate 
prediction and understanding of turnover reqiiires that proc- 
ess models be formulated and tested. Process models not 
only list the factors that cause employees to leave organiza- 
tions, they also suggest the sequence of causation among 
variables, i.e., which variables influence the person first, 
which come in to play next, and the effect of feedback loops. 
(Feedback loops show how the reaction of some results of 
a process serve to alter or reinforce the character of that 
process.) Those who have attempted to formulate such 
models include March (12), Vroom (20), Price (17), and 
Mobley (32). Although the details of the models differ, turn- 
over is generally thought to be a function of negative job 
attitudes combined with an ability to secure employment 
elsewhere. 

Limitations of Aggregated Data 

Many studies of turnover are based on aggregate or 
grouped data. Thus, the relationships found in these studies 
are between turnover rates and individuals grouped by the 
variables thought to be related to turnover. For example, 
a researcher could compare turnover rates by level of 
unemployment in the economy, by occupational group, by 
average job satisfaction within departments, etc. In human 
resource planning, analyzing such aggregate relationships 
may permit forecasting of turnover rates among the various 
grouping variables. For example, knowing that turnover 
is higher, on the average, among younger employees, or that 
it is highest in departments with the most job dissatisfac- 
tion, may be useful in projecting the number of quits in cer- 
tain groups and the number of required replacements. 
However, it is important to note that such aggregate or 
grouped analysis does not permit prediction or understand- 
ing of which individuals will leave or stay. Such prediction 
requires individual-level rather than group-level analyses. 

Experimental Designs 

As a general comment on turnover research, cross- 
sectional correlational studies are the most abundant, but 
not the most desirable. Studies seeking correlates of turn- 
over have employed concurrent [e.g., Schwab {60)], predic- 
tive [e.g., Farris {61)], and ex post facto [e.g., Wickert {62)] 
research designs. For the concurrent design, data on the 
predictor variables are collected sometime during (or at the 
end of) the period of time the turnover data are collected. 
For the predictive design, data on predictor variables are 
collected before the data on turnover are collected. For the 
ex post facto design, data are collected on the predictor 
variables after the data on turnover have been collected. 
The ex post facto design seems most open to criticism, as 
former employees can intentionally or unintentionally 



distort their perceptions of work-related factors, thus in- 
creasing the likelihood of fallacious or spurious results. Con- 
current designs frequently suffer from "data dredging," 
situations in which investigators may greatly rework con- 
current predictor-criterion relationships in search) of max- 
imum predictability. Results generated from such designs 
frequently incur sizeable amounts of shrinkage upon cross- 
validation. In predictive designs, variables thought to be 
related to turnover are measured in advance and their rela- 
tionship to subsequent turnover is assessed. Mobley {32) and 
Muchinsky {14) argue that predictive designs are the most 
stringent in terms of methodological rigor and probably 
have the most to offer in terms of practical value. 

Extent to Which Job Meets Expectations 

Research on realistic job previews clearly demonstrates 
how prior knowledge concerning the actual job environment 
can ultimately affect turnover {63). However, Steers {59) 
notes that "almost none of the existing 'comprehensive' 
models of employee turnover include the types of variables 
needed to adequately assess the extent to which one's ex- 
pectations and values surrounding a job are met by one's 
organizational experiences." Therefore, future models 
should attempt to measure the extent to which employees' 
expectations are met. 

Job Performance Level 

Several researchers have recently argued that the role 
of job performance level as a factor influencing desire or 
intent to leave has been overlooked [e.g., Steers {59), Jackof- 
ski {48), and Marsh (64)]. They believe that high job perfor- 
mance may heighten an employee's expectations concern- 
ing organizational rewards, while poor performance may 
result in negative attitudes concerning the intrinsic worth 
of the job. Therefore, it is recommended that performance 
level be recognized as a significant factor influencing the 
turnover process. 

Responses to Dissatisfaction— Other Than Leaving 

Steers {59) argues that current models assiune that once 
an employee has become dissatisfied, the wheels are set in 
motion for eventual termination. Steers notes that this 
assumption may not be valid because it ignores the fact that 
the employee may be able to change his or her current work 
situation (perhaps through bargEiining with the supervisor, 
threats to quit, etc.). Mobley (32) argues that another failm-e 
of current turnover models with respect to job satisfaction 
is that they ignore the employee's expectations about his 
or her future with the organization. Employees who are 
satisfied with their current jobs may leave the organiza- 
tion because they anticipate dissatisfaction in the future 
(e.g., they see no chance for progression in their career). Con- 
versely, employees who are dissatisfied with their current 
jobs may remain with the organization because they believe 
the organization will treat them better in the future. 

Consequences of Turnover: Not Always Negative 

Recently, several authors have begun to enumerate the 
positive aspects of turnover [Dalton (65), Muchinsky {33), 
and Mobley {32)]. For example, personnel cost savings 
sometimes result from turnover because rates of pay for new 
hires are lower than rates for experienced employees. Since 
eligibility for some benefits does not occur until seniority 



10 



is established, the company saves money on insurance 
payments, vacation pay, etc. Third, in cases where those 
who terminate are poor performers, turnover presents the 
opportunity to upgrade the quality of the work force. Fourth, 
when turnover occurs in jobs above the entry level, oppor- 
tunities for upward mobility are created. Also, new 
employees sometimes bring fresh perspectives to their jobs 
that improve the organization's effectiveness. For these 
reasons, a lcu:k of turnover can sometimes have negative ef- 
fects on an organization, and it is erroneous to believe that 
turnover is a negative behavioral response that should be 
totally extinguished. 



MEASUREMENT OF TURNOVER 

According to Price {1 7), several measures of turnover 
have been widely used. The major measures are average 
length of service, crude turnover rates, instability rates, and 
survival rates. Each of these types of measures is described 
and critiqued below. 

Average Length of Service 

There are two ways of computing average length of serv- 
ice. Since the two computations have different advantages 
and disadvantages, they are described separately. It should 
be emphasized that "average" refers to "central tendency." 
The mean, the median, and the mode are three averages— 
that is, measures of central tendency. The mean is the most 
frequently used average and is often wrongly equated with 
average. The mean is but one measure of central tenden- 
cy, one kind of average. 

Stayers 

Description 

The first computation, average length of service 
(stayers), is based on the existing membership (stayers) and 
is computed as means and medians. The mean is more often 
used and is computed in the following manner: 



Average length 
of service (stayers) 



Sum of length of 
service for each member 

Number of members 



Length of service is usually expressed in months or 
years (most commonly in years). 

The number of members (the denominator) is calculated 
as of a specific date rather than for a period of time. There 
is no fixed range within which this measure varies. Since 
the measure is limited by the lifetime of organizational 
members, its range cannot be too large. 

Criticism 



ly understandable. Nearly everyone understands the mean, 
the most common way to express this average. However, 
one possible hindrance to understanding is the fact that a 
high average indicates low turnover. For example, an 
average length of service of 20 yr for an organization would 
be a high average, but would indicate low turnover. 
Comprehension would be easier if the direction of the 
measure (number) were the same as the direction of the 
interpretation. 

Third, it is relatively easy to obtain an adequate size 
for the average because it is based on the total member- 
ship of the unit. The larger the size of the unit, the more 
stable the statistic— the less the statistic is influenced by 
minor subtractions and/or additions. Since it is relatively 
easy to obtain an adequate size, the measure can more readi- 
ly be used for small units — either organizations or sub- 
systems within an organization. 

A very serious disadvantage of this measure is its in- 
ability to indicate the high turnover rate of low-service 
members. If an organization has a relatively large core of 
high-service members but experiences a very large rate of 
turnover among its low-service members (a common situa- 
tion in most organizations), the average length of service 
will be relatively high. Since the average is based on the 
number of members as of a single date, it will indicate 
primEirily the lengths of service of the relatively large core 
of high-service members who will probably be members of 
the organization on the date the average is calculated. The 
average will not indicate most of the turnover of the low- 
service members, only a few of whom are likely to be 
members on the date the average is calculated. This disad- 
vantage is characteristic of averages as contrasted to rates; 
averages do not indicate the total niunber of members who 
may quit during a period. 

Leavers 

Description 

The second computation, average length of service 
fleavers), is a relatively recent addition to the measurement 
literature. This measure is mostly associated with research 
by Van der Merwe (66-67). The average is based on the 
members who leave Qeavers) and is calculated as follows: 



Average length 
of service (leavers) 



Median length of 

service of all members 

who leave during a period 



The previous computation of the average length of service 
was based on stayers as a single date; this computation is 
based on all leavers during a period of time. It should be 
emphasized that this second version of the average length 
of service is based on all members who leave during a 
period, not on all members from a cohort of new members. 
Most frequently, the lengths of service Eire expressed in 
months. 



The average length of service (stayers) has three advan- 
tages. First, it is relatively easy to compute. Organizations 
generally maintain readily available membership lists, and 
little effort is required to locate the date of each member's 
entrance into the organization. Calculation is also made 
easier by the fact that this measure does not require data 
for a period of time; the membership is enumerated as of 
a specific date. 

Second, the average length of service (stayers) is readi- 



Criticism 

The average length of service Oeavers) has three advan- 
tages. First, it is relatively easy to compute. Comparison 
of the list of members at two times will indentify the leavers 
during the period. Obtaining the length of service for each 
leaver is usually not too difficult. The personnel office of 
an organization will typically have a record of when each 
individual became a member of the organization, and with 



11 



these data, the median length of service of the leavers can 
be computed. 

Second, the average length of service (leavers) is readi- 
ly understandable, although it is easily confused with the 
more common average length of service (stayers). Organiza- 
tional researchers are unaccustomed to computing the 
average length of service of leavers rather than stayers. 

Third, the average indicates where, by length of service, 
turnover is taking place in the organization. If an organiza- 
tion is experiencing a higher rate of timiover among its low- 
service members than among its high-service members (the 
customary situation in most organizations), this will be 
reflected in a relatively low median length of service for 
the leavers. If for some reason the turnover rate of high- 
service members begins to increase, this will be immediate- 
ly reflected in a relatively higher median for the leavers. 
It is important for an organization to know where turnover 
is taking place. The loss of experienced members, for ex- 
ample, is much more likely to adversely influence effec- 
tiveness than the loss of inexperienced members. 

This measiu-e has two disadvantages. First, it is relative- 
ly difficult to obtain an adequate size for the average 
because it is based only on the leavers diu-ing a specific 
period. It takes a fairly large unit to have sufficient leavers 
to yield a stable statistic. As a result, use of this average 
is mostly restricted to fairly large units— either organiza- 
tions or subsystems within organizations. 

Second, although this average indicates where, by 
length of service, turnover is taking place in an organiza- 
tion, it does not indicate how much turnover characterizes 
the organization. Statements of high and low turnover are 
inappropriate for the average length of service fleavers). The 
volume of turnover which characterizes an organization is 
important because of the costs turnover creates; the greater 
the volume, the greater the costs. Because of these costs, 
it is important to know how much turnover is taking place 
in an organization. The utility of this average is decreased 
by its inability to indicate the volume of turnover. 



Crude Turnover Rates 



Description 



Two types of crude rates are used to measure turnover; 
one is based on "accessions" to the organization; the other 
is based on "separations" from the organization. Turnover 
includes movement both into and out of the organization. 
These rates are computed as follows: 



Accession 
rate 



Number of new ' 
members added during the period 

Average number of 
members during the period 



Separation 
rate 



Number of members 
who left during the period 

Average number of 
members diu-ing the period 



The accession rate and the separation rate require data col- 
lection during a period of time; months or years are the 
visual lengths of time used. Since most organizations are 
not large enough to have much turnover during a month, 
data are more frequently collected over a year. A year is 
also better because any monthly fluctuations will be 



"smoothed out." The members who leave during a period 
are commonly subdivided into different categories. "Qviits," 
"layoffs," and "discharges" are the categories of leavers 
used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (30). A separation 
rate is often computed for each category. The ''quit rate" 
is probably the most commonly used separation rate. The 
average number of members (the denominator) is tjrpically 
calculated by adding the number of members at the be- 
ginning of the period and at the end of the period and 
dividing by two [Byrt (68), p. 8, and Gaudet (69), p. 15]. 
Crude turnover rates are commonly multiplied by 100 
and expressed as percentages. There is no fixed range within 
which the crude turnover rates vary. The rates are always 
greater than zero. One of the highest rates ever reported 
for a year was 731 pet for a department in a factory in the 
Republic of South Africa (56). The separation rate is much 
more widely used than the accession rate and is probably 
the most fi'equently used measure of tiu-nover in the 
literature (29. 70). 

Criticism 

Crude turnover rates have three advantages. First, they 
are quite easy to compute. To compute the more common 
separation rate, all that is needed is the number of leavers 
dming a period and the size of the membership at the begin- 
ning and end of the period. Records maintained by person- 
nel offices commonly indicate the number of leavers dur- 
ing different periods of time. Many personnel offices regular- 
ly compute the crude separation rate. 

Second, crude turnover rates are readily understand- 
able. Understanding is enhanced by the common use of 
percentages and the fact that a high percentage indicates 
high turnover. For example, the 731 pet referred to for the 
South African factory is high and is interpreted as high. 

Third, crude turnover rates indicate all movement into 
and out of the organization. Consider the crude separation 
rate for an organization with a relatively large core of high- 
service members. Since all the leavers during a period enter 
into the computation, the more frequent movement of the 
low-service members will be indicated by the crude separa- 
tion rate. Also, as previously indicated, it is important to 
know the volume of turnover, because each accession and 
separation is costly to the organization. The utility of the 
crude turnover rates is enhanced because they indicate how 
much turnover characterizes an organization. 

There are, however, two disadvantages of the crude 
tvu-nover rates. First, the rates have no precise meaning. 
Van der Merwe states this very well, pointing out (67, p. 
236) that a separation rate of 100 percent could indicate 
any of the following: 

1. The entire labor force had tiu-ned over once during 
the year. 

2. Half the labor force had turned over twice, the other 
half remaining stable. 

3. A quarter had tiu-ned over four times, and so on. 

These three situations have very different organizational 
implications. The effectiveness of an organization is prob- 
ably much more seriously threatened if the entire labor 
force turns over once during the year than if a quarter of 
the labor force turns over four times diu-ing the year. If 
every member of the labor force leaves dm-ing the year, 
there will be few experienced members in the organization. 
However, if all of the turnover is concentrated in one-fourth 
of the labor force, three-fourths of the members will be ex- 



12 



perienced. Because the crude separation rate lacks a precise 
meaning, this rate does not indicate which of the different 
situations exists. These comments about the crude separa- 
tion rate also apply to the crude accession rate. The lack 
of a precise meaning for the two crude turnover rates 
diminishes their utility. 

The second disadvantage is that the crude turnover 
rates are misleading because they do not control for 
variables related to tvu-nover. The most important uncon- 
trolled variable is length of service. As previously indicated, 
low-service members have higher rates of turnover than 
high-service members. If an organization is increasing in 
size, it will be characterized by a high separation rate 
because of the high turnover rate of its newly hired 
members. A high separation rate will characterize the 
organization even if it experiences very little tiu-nover of 
its high-service members. Organizations with high separa- 
tion rates are usually thought to be relatively low in effec- 
tiveness because of the negative impact turnover is believed 
to have on effectiveness. However, organizations that are 
increasing in size are often responding to increased en- 
vironmental demand for their output, which, in the long 
run at least, probably portends increased effectiveness. The 
crude turnover rates are especially misleading when the 
size of the organization is increasing. 

These two disadvantages of the crude separation rate 
have prompted Silcock, a major scholar in the area of turn- 
over measurement to suggest {71, p. 439) that "it would 
probably be better to abandon [the rate and] seek an alter- 
native measure." Silcock's comments about the crude 
separation rate also apply to the crude accession rate. Most 
recommendations refer to the crude separation rate because 
it is used more often than the crude accession rate. 

Stability and Instability Rates 
Description 

Stability and instability rates are calculated in the 
following manner: 

Niunber of beginning 

members who remain 

Stability during the period 

rfltft ^ 

Number of members 

at beginning of period 



Instability 
rate 



Number of beginning 

members who leave 

during the period 

Number of members 
at beginning of period 



Only the numerators differ for the two rates. The stability 
rate is based on the number of members who remain dur- 
ing a period, whereas the instability rate is based on the 
members who leave during the period. The stability and in- 
stability rates require data collection during a period of 
time. Since the denominators for both rates are based on 
a number of specific individuals (the number of individuals 
at the beginning of the period), the rates have a fixed range 
of up to 100. The two rates are complements of each other. 
If the stability rate is known, the instability rate may be 
obtained by subtracting the stability rate from 100. Like 
the crude turnover rates, the rates are usually expressed 
as percentages, despite the fact that discussions are often 



in terms of rates. This practice, though misleading, is very 
common. 

Criticism 

There are three advantages of the stability and instabili- 
ty rates. First, the rates are easy to compute. All that is 
required is a list of organizational members at two times. 
Second, the rates are readily understandable. The stabili- 
ty rate is slightly more confusing than the instability rate, 
however. A high stability rate signifies low turnover, 
whereas a high instability rate signifies high tvu-nover. If 
85 pet of the beginning members remain to the end of a 
period, this high percentage of stability indicates low turn- 
over. If 85 pet of the beginning members leave by the end 
of the period, this high percentage of instability indicates 
high tvu-nover. As previously indicated, comprehension is 
easier if the direction and interpretation of a percentage 
are the same. 

Third, the stability and instability rates have a precise 
meaning. An instability rate of 50 pet can be attained in 
only one way— if half of the members at the beginning of 
the period leave by the end of the period. This precision 
arises from the fact that the rates are based on a niunber 
of specific members. The utility of the rates is increased by 
this precision. 

The stability and instability rates have two disadvan- 
tages. First, these rates do not indicate a sizable amount 
of the turnover of low-service members. Since the rates are 
based on membership enumeration at two points in time 
(the beginning and end of a period), they do not indicate 
the turnover that takes place during the period. If the time 
period is 1 yr (and this is a common period), this is suffi- 
cient time for a sizable number of low-service members to 
enter and leave the organization. The turnover of these low- 
service members will be indicated by these rates only if their 
membership in the organization includes the time at which 
the rates are calculated (the end of the period). 

Second, the stability and instability rates do not con- 
trol for length of service, probably the most important 
variable associated with turnover. This disadvantage can 
be partially corrected, however, If the number of members 
at the beginning of the period is large enough, the members 
can be subdivided by length of service, and stability and 
instability rates calculated for the subdivisions. There could 
be, for example, an instability rate for members who, at the 
start of the period, had been with the organization for less 
than 1 yr. However, this procedure only partially controls 
for length of service. Returning to the previous example, 
some of the members who entered the organization 1 yr 
prior to the beginning of the period may have left the 
organization by the beginning of the base period and thus 
would not be included in the calculations. In short, length 
of service is not perfectly controlled. A partial control, 
however, is better than no control. 

Survival and Wastage Rates 
Description 

Survival and wastage rates are calculated in the follow- 
ing manner: 

Number of new 
members who remain 
Survival during a period 

Number of 
new members 



13 



Wastage 
rate 



Number of new 

members who leave 

during a period 

Number of 
new members 



What is distinctive about these rates is their exclusive focus 
on new members. The new members used to determine the 
survival and wastage rates are sometimes termed a "cohort 
of new entrants." The length of time required to define the 
cohort of new members varies. If the organization is large, 
a month might be used. Usually, however, a longer period 
is needed to obtain a sufficiently large base to provide a 
stable statistic. Silcock suggests (72, p. 76) that individuals 
in a cohort of new members who enter during a given period 
are treated equally. If 3 months is required to obtain a suf- 
ficiently large nim[iber of new members, the label "new 
member" applies equally to all the entrants dvtring the 
3-month period. 

Two periods of time are required to calculate the sur- 
vival and wastage rates. The cohort of new members must 
first be defined by a period of time (e.g., the number of new 
members during 1 month). After the cohort is defined, a sec- 
ond period must pass before the rates can be calculated. The 
second period immediately follows the first. Survival and 
wastage rates are often computed for the same cohort of new 
members but over different periods of time. For instance 
survival rates can be computed every 6 months until every 
member of the cohort leaves the organization. The rates 
may also be computed for successive cohorts. The first cohort 
might be the new members who entered the organization 
during January, February, and March; the second cohort 
would then consist of the new members for April, May, and 
June; and so on. There is no limit to the number of suc- 
cessive cohorts for which the rates can be computed. Since 
there is a fixed niunber of new members during a period, 
the survival and wastage rates vary between and 100. 
These rates are also the complements of each other. If the 
survival rate is known, the wastage rate can be obtained 
by subtracting the survival rate fi"om 100. These rates are 
usually expressed as percentages. 

An important concept in the measurement of turnover 
is "half-life," the length of time required for a cohort of new 
members to be reduced to one-half its original size. For ex- 
ample, the half-life of a particular cohort might be 20 
months. A survival or wastage rate of 50 equals a half-life. 
At this rate (50 pet), the cohort of new members is reduced 
to one-half its original size. Thus, a siu^val or wastage rate 
of 50 pet is of particular importance. While survival and 
wastage rates Eire usually expressed as percentages, half- 
life is expressed in terms of time. 

Half-life is usually defined in terms of a cohort of new 
members. However, the number of members at the begin- 
ning of any period can be used to calculate half-life. Using 
this base, half-life would be the length of time required foi- 
the cohort of beginning members to be reduced to one-half 
its original size. In short, half-life can be used to indicate 
stability and instability rates a well as survival and wastage 
rates. 

A 50-pct survival or wastage rate is closely equivalent 
to expectation of service, when the latter term refers to 
membership from initial entry into the organization. When 
expressed in terms of initial entry, expectation of service 
is the average niunber of years of organizational life remain- 
ing at the beginning of membership. The length of time re- 
quired for the survival and wastage rates to reach 50 pet 



is approximately the average life remaining in the organiza- 
tion for a new member. The difference is that these rates 
are expressed as percentages, whereas the expectation of 
service, like the half-life, is expressed in terms of time. 

The expectation of service is analogous to the "expec- 
tation of life" in demography. Like the expectation' of life, 
expectation of service may refer to periods other than from 
initial entry into the organization. The expectation of serv- 
ice can be calculated for new members, 1-yr members, 2-yr 
members, etc. Regardless of the method of calculation, ex- 
pectation of service refers to the average number of years 
of organizational life remaining. 

Criticism 

The survival and wastage rates have three advantages. 
First, they are easily understandable. No loss of comprehen- 
sion occurs if the rates are expressed as half-life instead of 
as percentages. 

Second, these rates have a precise meaning. A survival 
rate of 50 pet for 1 yr has but a single meaning: that one- 
half the cohort of new members continue to be members 
of the organization at the end of their first year of member- 
ship. The precision of survival and wastage rates rests on 
the fact that they are based on a number of specific in- 
dividuals. As previously indicated, the precision of a rates 
add to its utility. The major (third) advantage of these rates 
is that they control for length of service by restricting 
themselves to the new members who enter during a period. 

There are two disadvantages of the survival and 
wastage rates. First, they are somewhat more difficult to 
compute than the other rates. The focus on new members 
rather than the total membership is an added difficulty. Ex- 
tra difficulty is also created by the need to gather data for 
two periods of time rather than one. 

Second, the rates are best adapted to quite large units. 
Short periods of time, such as a month, should be used to 
define the cohort of new members. Over longer periods, too 
much diversity is introduced into the cohort. The new 
members at the start of the period will be considerably dif- 
ferent from the new members at the end, especially when 
low-service members are the objects of study. However, it 
requires quite a large organization to obtain in 1 month 
the cohort of 100 recommended by Silcock. The requirement 
of a large size also means that subsystems of the organiza- 
tion can seldom be used to compute the rates unless the 
organization is very large. None of the other rates has an 
associated "size disadvantage" as serious as that of the siu-- 
vival and wastage rates. 

These rates are also criticized (56, p. 415) because of the 
length of time required to obtain the calculations. A period 
of time is first required to define the cohort of new members, 
often several months. A second period must then be allowed 
to pass before the rates can be calculated. Additional time 
is required if the researcher decides to follow a cohort un- 
til its last member leaves the organization. However, the 
charge of excessive time does not seem to be valid. The 
researcher need not begin with a new cohort; past cohorts 
can be used. The records of the organization can be used 
to obtain the raw data necessary to calculate the rates. 



USE OF MEASURES 

This section discusses when to use the various measvires 
that have been described and criticized. 

Price (.17) argues that the average length of service 



14 



(stayers) should not be used. The inability of this average 
to indicate the disproportionate extent to which low-service 
members enter and leave the organization is the decisive 
consideration in rejecting this measure. The survival and 
wastage rates are the most sophisticated of the measures. 
Of major importance is the ability of these rates to control 
for length of service. An important consideration, however, 
is the required size of the cohort of new members. As in- 
dicated earlier, Silcock suggests (71 , p. 76) that the cohort 
should not be allowed to fall below 100. Ideally, these 100 
new members should enter the unit during a relatively brief 
period of time, such as a month. Few organizations— and 
still fewer subsystems of organizations— will be able to 
achieve a cohort of 100 new members within a month. 
Therefore, most organizational research on turnover is not 
able to use the sophisticated siu^ival and wastage rates. 
These rates should be used when the organization studied 
is large. 

Multiple measiu-es should be used in most tiu-nover 
research. The question is, which of the remaining measures 
should be used? One of the measures should be the crude 
separation rate. Despite its lack of a precise meaning and 
its misleading nature, the wide usage of the separation rate 
is a strong argument for its continued use. The separation 
rate is used far more extensively than the accession rate. 
Extensive usage of the separation rate allows for a rough 
approximation among findings— an advantage not easily 
dismissed. 



If the organization is fairly large but not large enough 
to use the siu^ival and wastage rates, the average length 
of service (leavers) measure can be used with the crude 
separation rate. The two measiu-es complement each other 
very well. The average length of service (leavers) indicates 
where turnover is taking place in the organization. A disad- 
vantage of this average is that it does not indicate the 
voliune of organizational tmnover. However, this disadvan- 
tage is compensated for by the crude separation rate, which 
does indicate the volume of tiu-nover. Use of this average 
and the crude separation rate provides two important pieces 
of information about organizational turnover— its location 
and volume. 

If unit size is a problem, the instability rate can be used 
with the crude separation rate. These two rates also com- 
plement each other. The separation rate lacks a precise 
meaning, but the instability rate has a precise meaning. 
A major disadvantage of the instability rate is its inability 
to indicate a sizable amount of turnover of low-service 
members, while a major advantage of the separation rate 
is its ability to indicate the high tiu-nover rate of this type 
of member. Neither rate, however, controls for length of 
service — a major disadvantage. The instability rate is slight- 
ly easier to understand than the stability rate; therefore, 
the former rate is the preferred one. 



CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MINING INDUSTRY AND ITS WORK FORCE 



In addition to imderstanding the findings fi-om previous 
turnover research, it is important to consider some of the 
relatively unique characteristics of the mining industry and 
its work force before attempting to construct a model of the 
tiu-nover process for miners. Several recent studies about 
coal miners provide information that is useful for for- 
mulating hypotheses about which types of variables should 
and should not be considered as potential predictors of turn- 
over among imderground coal miners. This section presents 
findings fi-om several recent studies of the mining industry 
which may be useful for identifying the causes of turnover 
among miners. 

Trends in Employment Levels 

The Mine Seifety and Health Administration (MSHA) 
reports annual employment level statistics for the 
underground coal mining industry (73). According to these 
statistics, the number of hours worked by underground coal 
miners declined steadily from 1950 to 1970. However, this 
trend was reversed in the mid-1970's. Mine employment in- 
creased from 188,632,238 worker hours in 1973 to 
256,826,740 worker hours in 1979. Beginning in 1980, the 
trend was reversed once more, and the mining work force 
began to decline significantly. MSHA reports that only 
174,458,913 worker hours were worked at underground coal 
mines during 1985. 

The recent cutbacks in employment suggest that job 
security is currently an important issue to miners. These 
cutbacks have several important implications. When reduc- 
tions in the work force occur, those with the least seniority 
are usually let go, and many of the remaining employees 
are assigned to lower level jobs. These layoffs and 



reassignments may cause younger miners to become 
pessimistic and fi-ustrated with their career outlook. In 
areas where there are good opportunities for stable employ- 
ment in other (nonmining) segments of the economy, this 
pessimism is likely to cause miners to seriously consider 
working in other types of industries. 

Urban Versus Rural Areas 

Cohn (74) compared a sample of male mine workers to 
a sample of nonmine workers matched in terms of sex and 
occupational skill level, and noted how miners differ from 
nonminers. It was found that the proportion of miners liv- 
ing in rural areas was much greater than in the matched 
sample. Almost 60 pet of the miners worked in rural areas, 
compared with 35 pet of the matched sample. In remote 
rural areas, the types and number of jobs available to 
miners outside of the mining industry are usually rather 
limited. 

Education Levels 

Cohn notes that miners are, on the average, less well 
educated than matched nonminers, although this difference 
is much stronger for older as compared to younger miners. 
He reports that in 1970, 51 pet 9f the miners had less than 
a 9th grade education, compared with 37 pet among the non- 
miners. However, for miners under 25, roughly 10 pet had 
less than a 9th grade education, which was nearly equal 
to the proportion for nonminers of similar ages. This in- 
dicates that there may be a significant number of miners 
whose lack of formal education prevents them from quali- 
fying for most types of jobs outside of the mining industry. 



15 



This suggests that the availability of nonmining jobs is an 
important determinant of turnover only among the more 
educated miners. 

Trends in Career Movement 

With respect to trends in miners' entry and exit from 
a career in mining, the Cohn study indicates that entry in- 
to mining generally occurs early in the individual's career, 
with considerable out-movement and in-movement during 
the first years. After 5 30- of employment, however, in- 
movement decreases dramatically. A trickle of out- 
movement continues over the remaining years of working 
life. 

Pay 

According to the National Coal Association (75), miners' 
wage rates are as high as those of any manufacturing group. 
However, a study by the National Academy of Sciences (76) 
found that annual family income in coal mining com- 
munities is below the national average. The study suggests 
that frequent work interruptions and limited job oppor- 
tunities for spouses are the causes of the relatively low 
average level of family income. Becaue it is not likely that 
miners will be able to find jobs in other industries with 
higher wage rates, compensation may not be as important 
a reason for turnover among miners as it is for similarly 
skilled employees in other industries. However, wage dif- 
ferences £u-e probably a very important reason for turnover 
within the mining industry. When miners from 15 
underground coal mines were recently asked why they had 
decided to become a miner, they cited "good pay and 
benefits" much more frequently than any other reason (77). 
This reason was cited by 68 pet of the sample. The next most 
common reply was "because a member of my family works 
at the mine." This reason was cited by only 9 pet of the 
sample. 



Working Conditions 

According to the National Safety Council (78), 
underground mining is currently one of the most hazardous 
industries. A siu^ey of underground coal miners by Pfeifer 
(79) indicates that miners believe that, of the things the 
union does for them, bargaining for safer and healthier 
working conditions and otherwise putting pressure on the 
company to provide a safe mine are the most important. 
This suggests that miners are concerned about the safety 
of their work environment. 

In addition to the relatively high potential for injury- 
producing accidents, other conditions typically found in 
underground coal mines include darkness, high levels of 
noise and dust, dampness, temperatiu-es of about 50 °F, and 
ceilings that are not high enough to permit employees to 
walk or stand in an upright position. While underground, 
miners usually do not have access to clean water, toilets, 
or many of the other "necessities" which employees in other 
industries take for granted. In addition to the physical 
discomforts caused by the underground environment, some 
miners may experience some psychological discomfort due 
to feelings of being "closed in" and isolated from the world 
outside. These conditions suggest that physical aspects of 
the work environment may be an important cause of turn- 
over for miners. 



Lifestyle and Culture 

To further understand what is and is not likely to cause 
miner turnover, it is also important to consider nonwork 
factors. Goodman (5) provides the following description of 
the lifestyle and culture of miners from central 
Pennsylvania: 

Miners' life experiences have a somewhat narrow 
focus. Most were born in the area where they current- 
ly live, and expect to stay there. They have travelled 
very little. The focus of their everyday activities is 
in the cmrent geographical area, where opportunities 
to broaden their experience are few. 

The work experience for most of the men has been 
in mining, and almost all of them have relatives who 
have been in mining. Many of those with no ex- 
perience in and/or connections with mining have 
worked in jobs similar to mining, such as construc- 
tion or timbering. 

Miners consider their work to be legitimate and 
desirable. It is a job that has been performed through 
the generations, and it is a socially acceptable occupa- 
tion. Another cultural theme is one of autonomy or 
independence. The men exhibit strong preferences for 
behaving autonomously. Mining throughout the years 
has been a very autonomous activity and very likely 
the natvu-e of the work has reinforced the miners' per- 
sonal preference for work that is relatively free from 
close supervision. 

Performing concrete, physical, "masculine" ac- 
tivities is another major dimension of the miner's life, 
both on and off the job. Miners often report that they 
spend their holidays or free time building things, 
making repairs to their home, hunting or fishing. 
Most of the miners felt that their job was NOT the 
central part of their life; home and other nonwork ac- 
tivities were more central. 

Although this description is not an acciu-ate portrayal 
of all mines and miners, it may be fairly representative of 
a large portion of the underground coal mining work force, 
and has several interesting implications for understanding 
turnover. 

Groodman's study indicates that miners' ties to their 
family and the local community are often quite strong, and 
that their knowledge of (and desire to live in) faraway com- 
munities is apt to be quite limited. This suggests that ties 
to people in the local area and responsibility for supporting 
a family or relatives are likely to be important determinants 
of whether or not miners will consider job opportunities that 
are beyond a reasonable commuting distance from where 
they presently live. 

The Goodman study indicates that miners consider it 
important to have time for family and other nonwork ac- 
tivities. However, most miners spend a significant portion 
of their time working evening and night shifts. This sug- 
gests that another important determinant of turnover may 
be the extent to which miners' work schedules prevent them 
from participating in family and social activities. 

The Goodman study also indicates that miners' have a 
strong desire to work autonomously (with little supervision). 
This suggests that overly close supervision could be an im- 
portant cause for turnover. 

In summary, the studies discussed in this section have 
provided several clues about which variables are and are 
not likely to be important determinants of miners' turnover. 



16 



It is concluded that the following variables are potentially 
useful for understanding and predicting whether or not 
miners will choose to remain with their present employer: 
pay, style of supervision, safety, working conditions, job 



security, opportunity for family-social activities, and kin- 
ship responsibilities. A causal model of miners' turnover 
including these and a few other vEiriables is presented in 
the next section. 



A MODEL OF THE TURNOVER PROCESS FOR UNDERGROUND MINERS 



Using the findings from research on employee turnover 
from other industries and what is known about miners and 
the mining industry, a conceptual model of the factors that 
produce turnover among miners was generated (fig. 1). 
Predictions regarding the direction of the association 
between the variables in the model are indicated by the 
words "plus" or "minus." Definitions for the variables are 
given below. 

Career expectations— The degree to which miners expect 
their mine will have available the types of jobs they will 
want to perform. 

Intent to sta^'— The estimated likelihood of continued 
employment at the mine. 

Job satisfaction— The degree to which miners like their 
jobs. 

Kinship responsibility— The extent of a miner's obliga- 
tions to relatives in the community where the employer is 
located. 

Opportunity— The availability of alternative jobs in the 
mine's environment. 

Satisfaction with conditions of work— The degree to 
which miners like and/or dislike the physical aspects of then- 
work environment. 

Satisfaction with coworkers— The degree to which 
miners view their coworkers as friendly and cooperative. 

Satisfaction with supervisor— The degree to which 
miners view their supervisor positively. 

Satisfaction with job content— The degree to which 
miners like their work. 

Satisfaction with job security— The degree to which 
miners are satisfied with their future chances of being able 
to work for their current employer. 

Satisfaction with opportunities for family and social 
activity— The degree to which miners are satisfied with their 
opportunities to interact with their family and friends. 

Satisfaction with pay— The degree to which miners are 
satisfied with the amount of money or equivalents 
distributed in return for service. 

Satisfaction with safety— The degree to which miners are 
satisfied with their personal safety while at work. 

None of the variables in the model refer to "correlates," 
such as age, length of service, or existence of a union. Cor- 
relates (sometimes termed demographic variables) are not 
included in the model because they do not indicate the 
means whereby they produce variations in turnover. Age 
illustrates this. Quite a substantial literatvire (i 7) supports 
a negative relationship between age and turnover: Younger 
members usually have higher rates of turnover than do 
older members. Age, however, does not indicate how or why 
the younger age produces higher rates of turnover. An 
answer to the "how" question can be found among the 
variables defined above. Younger members have higher 
rates of turnover than older members because they usual- 
ly have the less desirable jobs; are less satisfied (or are 



dissatisfied) with pay, coworkers, and job content; have 
fewer close friends in the organization, and have fewer local 
obligations to kin. In short, it is not age per se that pro- 
duces variations in turnover, but kinship responsibility and 
satisfaction with various aspects of the job, both of which 
are correlated with age. 

The position taken here on correlates may seem trivial 
to some, but the distinction between correlates and the 
model variables is an important one when the objective is 
explanation rather than prediction. If the goal is to arrive 
at a set of variables that will maximally predict who will 
and who will not leave the organization, then there is 
nothing wrong with including variables such as age and 
length of service— in fact, any variable correlated with turn- 
over should be included. However, if the goal is to explain 
turnover, e.g., to indicate why those who are younger and 
those with short service records leave more often, one must 
look toward theoretically relevant constructs, such as those 
defined above. Turnover researchers have shown conclu- 
sively that age and length of service are good predictors of 
turnover, but the reasons why this is so have not been 
explained. 

Working backwards through the model, it is 
hypothesized that voluntary turnover is negatively 
associated with miners' intent to stay and positively 
associated with the perceived chances of finding work 
elsewhere. Miners' intent to stay is positively associated 
with job satisfaction, kinship responsibilities, and career 
expectations. Various components of overall job satisfaction 
are also listed in figure 1. These components are all positive- 
ly related to overall job satisfaction. They are discussed 
below. 

Job Opportunity (at Other Companies) 

In addition to wanting to leave his or her current job, 
the miner must perceive that he or she has other job oppor- 
tunities, in order for turnover to occur. Therefore, this 
variable reflects what miners hear about job opportunities 
at other nearby mines and, to a lesser extent, the availabili- 
ty of jobs in nearby nonmining businesses. Thus, it is 
h5T)othesized that job opportunity is positively related to 
turnover. 

Kinship Responsibilities 

This variable is important to consider because most 
miners are responsible for suppwrting a family (80). Obvious- 
ly, it is easier for miners who arQ young and unmarried to 
leave a job than it is for older persons with families to sup- 
port. Therefore, it is expected that kinship responsibilities 
are positively related to intent to stay. 

Career Expectations 

The career path of miners is fairly well defined, especial- 
ly in unionized operations. Promotion among underground 



17 



Opportunity 



Plus 



Job content 



Plus 



Plus 



Coworkers 




Supervisor 
Working condition 
Job security 



^ Job _Pius_^ Intent ^yimMl^TuTnover 
satisfaction to stay 



Opportunity for 

family- social 

activities 



Safety 



PI 



us / 



Plus 



Kinship responsibility 
Career expectations 



Plus 




Figure 1 .—Causal model of miner turnover. 



miners usually implies moving into jobs that are somewhat 
higher paying and are likely to be less physically demand- 
ing and perhaps more intrinsically satisfying (i.e., the work 
is perceived as more important and more interesting). 
Miners who have reached the top of their career path and 
do not wish to remain in that job indefinitely might be likely 
to leave if they become aware of an attractive job elsewhere. 
In some cases, miners may possess skills that qualify 
them for jobs in mine management or jobs outside of min- 
ing. For instance, during the past few years, several young 
people have graduated with college degrees in mining 
engineering or some related field, and because they could 
not find professional-level jobs, have chosen to take entry- 
level jobs in a mine. One would expect that these individuals 
will be likely to leave their jobs whenever they are able to 
find professional-level jobs. Of course, if the management 
job is within the same company, this should not be con- 
sidered turnover. It is hypothesized that intent to stay will 
be positively related to the degree of congruency between 
a miner's career goals and his or her opportunities to realize 
these goals if he or she should choose to stay with the pres- 
ent employer. 



Overall Job Satisfaction 

This variable is hypothesized to be positively related to 
miners' intent to stay. Although it is natural to assvmie that 
such a relationship exists, several studies have been unable 
to empirically confirm it. For practical as well as theoretical 
reasons, it would be valuable to know which specific facets 
of job satisfaction are most strongly related to turnover. 
Therefore, the following variables should also be included: 

Satisfaction With Job Content 

Jobs in underground coal mining vary in terms of the 
degree to which miners derive satisfaction from perform- 
ing them. Some jobs are more challenging, more interesting, 
more dangerous, less repetitive, more free from supervision, 
or less physically demanding than others. Some require 
fewer skills and are perceived as less important than others. 
Miners' job satisfaction or dissatisfaction is determined by 
both the characteristics of the work and the characteristics 
of the individual. Satisfaction with job content reflects the 
degree to which the characteristics of a miner's work are 



18 



congruent with the miner's interests, desires, and 
capabilities. Mobley (32) reports that satisfaction with job 
content is one of the most consistent indicators of turnover. 
Therefore, it is hypothesized that this variable is positive- 
ly related to miners' intent to stay. 

Satisfaction With Pay 

This variable is h3T)othesized to be positively correlated 
with miners' intent to stay. However, it is likely that pay 
satisfaction is not as important a predictor of turnover for 
the mining industry as it is for other industries. Given that 
miners typically lack the qualifications for better paying 
nonmining jobs, and that miners' pay rates are above the 
average pay rates of employees in similarly skilled occupa- 
tions, it is usually difficult for miners to find higher pay- 
ing jobs in nonmining occupations. Also, many miners are 
geographically isolated from other industries. Thus, in order 
for miners who work in such areas to enter a different oc- 
cupation, they would have to relocate their families. 

Satisfaction With Coworkers 

This variable is believed to be positively related to 
miners' intent to stay. The work involved in underground 
mining is generally performed by small crews of approx- 
imately 10 or fewer people. These crews are physically 
isolated from one another, and as previously mentioned, the 
work demands much coordination between crew members. 
Therefore, it is critical that miners develop good relations 
with their coworkers. This variable is considered a more 
important predictor of turnover for miners than for 
employees in other industries. 

Satisfaction With Supervisor 

This variable is hjrpothesized to be positively related to 
miners' intent to stay. Several components of the super- 
visor's behavior are important to consider. As previously 
mentioned, miners do not expect close supervision, and may 
become annoyed with supervisors who do not allow enough 
freedom. Also, the supervisor is an important source of feed- 
back to the miner about how or she is performing. The 
supervisor is responsible for allocating work assignments, 
resources, and various nonmonetary rewards and 
punishments to the crew. Therefore, it is important that 
the supervisor allocate rewards and resources equitably, 
give assistance and guidance as needed, and give miners 
adequate feedback concerning their job performance. 

Satisfaction With Conditions of Work 

This variable is hypothesized to be positively related to 
miners' intention to stay. This variable is considered a more 



important predictor of turnover for miners than for 
employees in other industries. As previously mentioned, the 
physical environment creates several types of discomfort 
for those who work underground 



Satisfaction With Safety 

The psychological fears associated with underground 
mining are an important consideration. The possibility of 
death or severe harm from falling rock, entrapment, explo- 
sions, and innundation is likely to detract from miners' 
desire to work underground. It seems likely that news of 
unsafe conditions, accidents, or mining catastrophes might 
cause miners to think about quitting mining. A miner's 
desire to quit mining in order to avoid harm might be 
significantly strengthened by the miner's family, since they 
would be likely to suffer emotional and economic hardships 
if the miner were killed or disabled. Due to the hazards 
associated with mining, safety satisfaction is probably a 
more important predictor of turnover for the mining in- 
dustry than it is for most other industries. 



Satisfaction With Job Security 

Recent layoffs and mine closings have resulted in much 
concern over job seciuity among miners. This fear of job loss 
may cause miners (especially younger men) to want to go 
into another occupation. A related source of concern to 
miners is the life expectancy of the mine. Obviously, as 
miners realize that there is not much coal left in their mine, 
they may begin to think about looking for work at another 
mine. Most likely, a miner wovild be more interested in work 
at a mine whose life expectancy is at least as long as the 
remainder of his or her career. It is believed that in times 
of low unemployment, satisfaction with job security is 
positively related to turnover. However, satisfaction with 
job security is unrelated to turnover in times of high 
unemployment (because there are no other jobs available). 



Satisfaction With Opportunities for Family-Social 
Activities 

A significant portion of the time most underground coal 
miners spend at work is during evening and night shifts. 
Because miners who must work these shifts may have 
limited opportunities to do things they enjoy with their 
family and friends, they may want to find day-shift jobs. 
Therefore, it is expected that the degree of miners' satisfac- 
tion with opportunities for family-social activities will be 
positively related to miners' intent to stay. 



RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CONTROLLING MINER TURNOVER 



Given the complex, multifaceted nature of turnover, 
there are obviously no panaceas or pat prescriptions for 
managing miner turnover. A fundamental point is that 
management responses to turnover must be based on 
diagnosis and evaluation of the causes and consequences 
of turnover in the context of the particular mine and min- 
ing company. The objective of this section is to focus on some 



of the areas that may need more effective turnover manage- 
ment. For each area, several diagnostic questions are pro- 
vided. Most of these questions have been derived from 
Mobley (32). The data for answering these diagnostic ques- 
tions can come from several sources, including— 

1. Personnel records. 



19 



2. Regular employee svirveys. 

3. Exit interviews. 

4. Followup surveys of employees who leave. 

5. Competitive analyses to include factors in addition 
to monetary compensation. 

Surveys and interviews should assess not only present 
job perceptions and attitudes, but also expectations regard- 
ing the individual's career, perceptions of alternative jobs, 
nonwork values, and intentions to stay. Only after valid 
diagnostic information on the causes and consequences of 
turnover has been gathered can effective turnover manage- 
ment and control strategies be designed. 

The sections that follow discuss areas in which turnover 
can be most effectively managed. These areas include 
recruitment, selection, and early socialization; job content; 
pay practices; supervision; career management; and other 
opportunities for effectively managing turnover. 



RECRUITMENT, SELECTION, AND 
SOCIALIZATION 

The processes by which miners choose and are chosen 
for jobs offer a number of important opportunities for effec- 
tive turnover management. The organizational entry proc- 
ess is one of matching the miner and company. This match- 
ing is based on the miner's aptitudes and abilities relative 
to the job requirements and the miner's values, preferences, 
and expectations relative to the company's norms, policies, 
practices, rewards, and conditions. 

The traditional approach to the matching process is 
based on the company's assessment of the individual 
relative to job requirements. Standardized tests, work 
samples, interviews, weighted application forms, and 
biographical inventories are among the traditional 
employee selection techniques which, when validated, may 
be useful selection techniques. The literature suggests that 
these traditional employee selection techniques can predict 
turnover. Although the ability of individual tests to predict 
turnover is not particularly strong, such predictors, when 
used in combination, are important to turnover 
management. 

If the matching process is to be effective, both the miner 
and the employer must be actively involved. Too frequent- 
ly, prospective and new employees have inaccurate infor- 
mation and unrealistic expectations. The literature in- 
dicates that realistic recruitment and selection can enhance 
the matching process, increase satisfaction, and reduce 
voluntary turnover (81). 

The realistic job preview (RJP) is one way a company 
can enhance realism. Not a single technique, the RJP is 
rather a philosophy or approach. This philosophy or 
approach assumes that giving candidates and newcomers 
accurate and complete information will result in better 
matching, increased satisfaction and commitment, and 
lower turnover. The realistic information can be trans- 
mitted through booklets, films, mine tours, video tapes, 
realistic work samples, interviewers, supervisors, other 
recent hires, or combinations of these approaches. 

The time immediately eifter a miner joins the company 
is important in shaping the miner's attitudes and behavior. 
The new miner should be provided with accurate expecta- 
tions of what the job requires and the company expects; a 
clear understanding of reward contingencies; and assistance 
in establishing a social support system among fellow crew 
members, the supervisor, and others. Such early socializa- 



tion may take several months. This sort of systematic early 
socialization is substantially different from the traditional 
several-hoiu- new miner orientation program. 

Many employers have a probationary period as a mat- 
ter of policy or contractual agreement. Yet the probationary 
period frequently is not effectively used. To be effective, the 
probationary period should provide systematic evaluation 
and feedback to the new miner, coaching and counseling, 
and joint employee-employer evaluation of the probable suc- 
cess of a continuing employment relationship. The proba- 
tioneiry period can be considered an extended job trial. If 
the employer and/or miner conclude there is a mismatch, 
individualized training and development, transfer, or 
termination may be appropriate. Given the fact that miner 
selection and early socialization procedures will not always 
result in a suitable match, early transfer or termination 
of some miners will be both inevitable and desirable from 
both the miner's and the company's perspectives. 

Given (1) the fact that both miners and employers 
change, (2) the current state of researchers' ability to 
measure and effectively match miners and employers, and 
(3) the fact that early turnover may be positive or negative, 
it would be naive to assume that the recruitment, selection, 
and early socialization processes are the only answer to ef- 
fective turnover management. However, these processes are 
clearly important for effective turnover management and 
are underdeveloped in many mining companies. 

Diagnostic questions relevant to recruitment, selection, 
and early socialization include the following: 

1. Is early turnover evident? 

2. Can mismatches in aptitude and ability be 
identified? 

3. Are new miners entering the company with 
unrealistic expectations? 

4. Does the recruiting and selection process include 
means for transmitting realistic job information? 

5. Has the utility of the techniques used for selecting 
miners been evaluated? 

6. Does the company's entry process include 
mechanisms for teaching coping skills, communicating role 
expectations and rewcird contingencies, and building social 
support systems? 

7. Has an effective probationary period been developed 
that includes systematic evaluation, feedback, coaching, and 
counseling? 

JOB CONTENT 

As noted previously, employee perceptions and evalua- 
tions of job content are one of the more consistent correlates 
of turnover. To the extent that miners value tasks with 
meaningfulness, identity, significance, feedback, and varie- 
ty, designing jobs with such qualities should enhance 
satisfaction with job content and decrease turnover. To the 
extent that goals are unclear, feedback is indirect or 
delayed; variety is diminished through high specialization 
and routinization; and accountability, discretion, and self- 
control are minimized. Where these conditions are present, 
jobs will become boring or frustrating to miners who seek 
task meaningfulness and identity. However, not all miners 
value an "enriched" job, and the redesign of all mining jobs 
is not feasible. Thus the issue is one of effectively matching 
miners' abilities, interests, and values with task re- 
quirements. This may be accomplished in two nonmutual- 
iy exclusive ways: selection- and placement-based strategies 



20 



(tests, interviews, realistic job previews, job trials) and job 
design strategies. 

As the average education and expectations of the min- 
ing work force increase, as work values move more toward 
a stronger desire for meaningfulness; and as selection ratios 
become less favorable in the tighter labor markets projected 
for the remainder of the century, job design strategies may 
take on added significance. Companies whose profit margins 
do not permit wage competition in a given labor market 
may find that meaningful jobs will be an effective way of 
competing in the labor meirket. 

The following are examples of diagnostic questions in 
the area of job content: 

1. Do miners (and applicants) value task mean- 
ingfulness and identity? 

2. Is dissatisfaction with job content related to turnover 
at this mine? 

3. Is job redesign feasible? 

4. Would job redesign make the mine more competitive 
in the local labor market? 

5. Are the costs and consequences of turnover such that 
turnover is preferred to the costs and/or benefits of job 
redesign? 

COMPENSATION PRACTICES 

While research indicates that differences between com- 
panies' pay rates are related to tiu"nover rates, this rela- 
tionship is far from perfect and does not address the 
individual-level prediction of turnover. It is apparent that 
companies must continue to assess the competitiveness of 
their wages and benefits in the relevant labor markets. 
Wage and salary surveys are widely used for this purpose 
and need not be detailed here. 

However, several caveats are noteworthy. In regions ex- 
periencing an in-migration of new industry, an employer 
must anticipate the impact of the new industry on the local 
market. Advance management assessment of the impact 
of the wages and benefits of new industry permits timely 
evaluation of strategies to address the new competition. To 
wait until after the new industry arrives risks disruptive 
levels of employee migration. For example, Mobley (32) 
reports that it recently took a division of a large corpora- 
tion 12 months to get approval to adjust its salary scale after 
a new employer moved into the local labor market. During 
this interval, some 40 pet of the work force migrated to the 
new industry. If an employer is unable to be wage- 
competitive in the market, careful attention must be given 
to other factors that allow the employer to recruit and re- 
tain a competent work force, such as job content and 
supervision. 

Miners' compensation must not only be competitive 
relative to the labor market, it must also be internally 
equitable; i.e., there must be appropriate differences be- 
tween the compensation for different jobs within the mine. 
A well-developed and well-understood job evaluation proc- 
ess is important for maintaining internal equity. Job 
evaluation procedures are well documented in a number of 
sources and are not discussed here. (See reference 82.) 

Pay, Performance, and Turnover 

If pay is a reward valued for what it will buy and/or for 
what it signifies (for example, recognition, attainment, 
status, etc.), and if individual performance is measurable 



and employee-controllable, then making a strong link be- 
tween pay increases and performance may be a useful 
motivational strategy. Even in cases where individuals are 
dissatisfied with the absolute amount of their pay increases, 
pay can still have a positive influence if the relative amount 
of pay increase is related to performance. 

A relevant managerial question concerns who is 
dissatisfied with their pay— the good or the poor performers? 
Many managers argue for across-the-board increases. The 
effect of this undifferentiated reward policy is to reward in- 
competence and penalize competence. The poor performer 
is signaled that performance is not relevant to pay, and is 
reassured that he or she got the same increase as everyone 
else. 

The good performer also is signaled that performance 
is not relevant to pay, and is likely to be dissatisfied that 
his or her good performance was rewarded in the same way 
as the performance of the poor performer. The good per- 
former's response may be to lower performance or, if alter- 
native jobs are available, to quit. As noted previously, the 
consequences of turnover are significantly different for good 
versus poor performers. 

Pay is not the only important reward, but it is the most 
tangible company -controlled reward, and thus is a potent 
signal. Failure to give greater rewards to good rather than 
poor performers may contribute to turnover smiong those 
individuals a company would least like to lose. While valid 
measures of performance may be difficult to accomplish, it 
may also be true that managers too frequently avoid 
establishing a pay-performance contingency even when per- 
formance can be adequately categorized for differential 
rewEirds. 

Sample diagnostic questions in the area of compensa- 
tion include the following: 

1. Are systematic wage surveys conducted to assess 
competitiveness in relevant labor markets? 

2. Has there been a recent attempt to systematically 
evaluate miners' jobs? 

3. Are timely wage adjustments made in response to 
particularly competitive occupations? 

4. Is the impact of new industry in the area being 
anticipated? 

5. Where wage competition is not feasible, are alter- 
native competitive strategies developed? 

6. Are the performance and earnings of leavers versus 
stayers being analyzed? 

7. Does a performance-contingent pay increase policy 
exist? 

8. Do employees see the link between pay increases and 
performance? 

9. Are high-performance leavers less satisfied with pay 
practices than stayers? 

Supplementary Benefits 

A competitive supplementary or fringe benefit package 
may contribute to attracting and retaining employees. A 
recent national survey of coal miners suggest that this may 
be a particularly important issue'for the mining industry. 
Goodman (.80) reports that., in comparison with other aspects 
of their jobs, miners' satisfaction with their supplementary 
benefits is quite low. 

The increasing percentage of total payroll costs devoted 
to such benefits dictates that they be well-managed. The 
competitiveness of a company's benefits can be assessed via 
benefit surveys, which are conducted in much the same way 



21 



as wage surveys. However, it is important to recognize that 
it is the miner's perception of the competitiveness of the 
benefits that controls the influence on turnover. If benefits 
are competitive, the comp2iny should commimicate this fact. 

The concept of "cafeteria" benefit plans, under which 
employees are able to choose, within limits, how they wish 
to allocate their benefit dollars, is conceptually appealing. 
Such plans allow better matching of miners' values and 
needs with benefit options. Although such plans have not 
been widely adopted^ perhaps due to concern about possi- 
ble administrative costs, they continue to be worthy of 
consideration. 

A fundamental problem with benefits, from a turnover 
perspective, is that generally they are not performance- 
based. Thus they are available to all employees or to the 
employees in various broad categories, such as exempt, non- 
exempt hourly, salary, etc. As such, a highly competitive 
benefit plan may serve to discourage turnover among 
habitual poor performers. To the extent that this is the case, 
the company may find it useful to consider diverting a por- 
tion of the total benefit cost to benefits or rewards that are 
performance-contingent. The effect would be both to rewEird 
good performance and to discourage turnover among good 
performers. 

Sample diagnostic questions in the area of turnover and 
benefits include the following: 

1. Are benefit plans competitive? 

2. Do miners perceive the competitiveness of the 
benefit plan? 

3. Would "cafeteria" benefit plans increase the value 
of benefits to miners and the company? 

4. Can a portion of the benefit cost be diverted to 
performance-contingent rewards? 



LEADERSHIP AND SUPERVISION 

Employees' values and rewards , both of which are fun- 
damental to miners' attachments to the company, can come 
fi-om several sources. As previously discussed, job content 
is a primary sorn^ce of intrinsic reward, i.e., attainment of 
such values as task meaningfulness and identity, while com- 
pensation is the most tangible form of extrinsic reward. 
However, the immediate supervision also can be an impor- 
tant som"ce and facilitator of rewards and value attainment 
and can play an important role in turnover management. 

The supervisor controls a significant reward— praise. 
Given the time demands on many supervisors, inadequate 
attention is given to the basic, yet important, supervisory 
task of praising employee performance. When supervisor- 
employee interaction is analyzed, it is frequently found that 
supervisors spend more time criticizing than praising 
employees and their performance. An established princi- 
ple of reinforcement theory is that the source of reinforce- 
ment and the situation siurounding positive reinforce- 
ment—in this case, the supervisor giving praise— builds 
positive attachment to the sovu^ce and situation. Training 
supervisors in the effective use of praise and positive rein- 
forcement is worth exploring from both work-motivation 
and turnover perspectives. To the extent that the supervisor 
establishes a positive personal relationship with his or her 
crew, demonstrates consideration for the miner, and creates 
a supportive environment, the miner may become less likely 
to quit, because of personal attachment to the supervisor. 

Another way the supervisor can contribute to effective 
turnover management is to be a facilitator of miners' task 



attainment. By creating conditions under which achieve- 
ment is possible, by providing feedback and recognition, and 
by removing obstructions to performance, the supervisor 
contributes to both task accomplishment and reward. Also, 
supervisors must establish contingencies for the rewards 
they control. The supervisor who fails to develop an environ- 
ment in which goal attainment is valued and rewarded may 
be contributing to turnover among the potentially better 
performers. Fmthermore, the failure of the supervisor to 
establish reward contingencies may reinforce poorer per- 
formers who should either be trying to improve their per- 
formance or seeking another type of job. 

The supervisor can also play an important role in the 
early socialization of new miners. The supervisor is a 
primary source of role information, role expectations, feed- 
back, and social support for the new miner. Important super- 
visory activities with respect to new miners include aiding 
the new miner by reducing the ambiguity of the new situa- 
tion (particularly importemt for those who have never before 
worked underground); teaching the formal and informal 
cues, norms, and communications networks; clarifying and 
negotiating goal and reward expectations; and shaping new 
miners' behavior by reinforcing successively closer approx- 
imations to desired role behavior. 

The supervisor plays an important role in miners' train- 
ing and career development. Through open discussions with 
miners regarding their training needs and career aspira- 
tions, and working to create appropriate training and 
development opportunities, the supervisor can facilitate the 
internal development of miners and enhance their future- 
oriented attachment to the company. 

Supervisors occasionally play a far too passive role in 
miners' training and development. To counter this, com- 
panies must establish clear goals and reward contingencies 
for the supervisor's role in training and development of 
miners. Further, the company must provide support for 
supervisors with policies, practices, procedures, and train- 
ing which permit attainment of the objectives discussed in 
the preceding paragraphs. 

Among the diagnostic questions in the area of supervi- 
sion are the following: 

1. Are supervisors developing a supportive work 
environment? 

2. Are supervisors facilitating miners' task 
attainment? 

3. Are supervisors establishing reward contingencies? 

4. Are supervisors trained in effectively managing the 
role-learning and assimilation of new miners? 

5. Are supervisors active participants in the training 
and development of their crew? 

6. Is the company providing supervisors with pro- 
cedures, training, and rewards for accomplishing the 
preceding objectives? 



CAREER PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT 

Tm-nover is related to present satisfaction and future 
expectations and evaluations of jobs and roles within and 
outside the company. For miners who value learning and/or 
refining their skills and abilities, and who seek to improve 
their job performance, company-supported training and 
development can contribute to job satisfaction. 

Although miners may be satisfied with their present 
jobs, they may leave because they do not anticipate satis- 
fying future roles. In addition, valued employees may 



22 



become more prone to quit as changes evolve in their career 
path, personal aspirations and values, and family life. 
Earlier, the recruitment and selection process was 
characterized as a matching process. However, this match- 
ing process extends beyond initial selection and can be con- 
sidered to be ongoing throughout a miners' career. 

In more specific terms, employers need to provide miners 
with accurate information about their career paths, ac- 
curate feedback on their assessed potential for success in 
their careers, opportunities for valid self-assessment, 
rewards for self-development, and developmental oppor- 
tunities and programming. Among the important 
components of a viable career planning and development 
process are broad-based job-posting systems, cEireer and per- 
sonal counseling, regular assessment of miners' career in- 
terests, and reward systems for subordinate development 
(i.e., getting the education or experience needed to qualify 
for more advanced jobs). 

As previously stated, it is the miners' values, expecta- 
tions, and perceptions of internal development opportunities 
that guide their tiu"nover decisions. Although the company 
may have a rational career-development path outlined for 
a miner, if the miner does not perceive and positively 
evaluate this path, turnover may be the outcome. Further- 
more, a positively evaluated career path at one point may 
not be so evaluated later. There is no alternative to a con- 
tinuing, two-way dialogue between miners and their 
employers if the career planning and development process 
is to be effective. 

Among the diagnostic questions in the area of career 
planning and development are the following: 

1. Are employees actively involved in their own career 
planning? 

2. Are opportunities for self-assessment, information 
on career possibilities, and rewards systems for self and 
subordinate development provided? 

3. Are high performers or "high potentials" leaving 
for lack of career-development information or opportunities? 



OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR EFFECTIVE 
MANAGEMENT OF TURNOVER 

Security 

Companies that are subject to fluctuations in employ- 
ment levels may experience difficulty in retaining 
employees due to fear of layoffs. Some vmions have attempt- 
ed to address this issue by negotiating supplemental 
unemployment benefits. Mobley (32) reports that several 
nonunionized firms have created a "security fund" which 
is used to buffer economic layoffs by offering paid vacations 
to senior employees, thus keeping employees with less 
seniority on the payroll. Job sharing is an alternative; 
reduced scheduled work hours are shared among employees, 
thus minimizing layoffs. Security funds or job sharing may 
serve to buffer some of the impact of economic downturns 
and thus may help reduce turnover that results from job 
insecurity. Obviously, careful study of the economic implica- 
tions of such strategies is required before they are 
implemented. 

Working Conditions 

The physical aspects of the work environment in which 
underground mining takes place must not be overlooked. 
The increased regulation, publicity, and general awareness 
of mine safety, together with the physical discomforts of 
working underground, lead to the hypothesis that working 
conditions will be an increasingly important factor in the 
recruitment and retention of miners. Work environments 
that are physically and psychologically safe and desirable 
are a worthy goal from a turnover perspective as well as 
from broader organizational and societal perspectives. 

Team Building 

Just as job content, the supervisor, etc., can be sources 
of attachment to the job, so can the crew or work group with 
whom the miner interacts. Recent literature on team 
building should be of interest to companies seeking more 
effective turnover management. (See references 83 and 84.) 



SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 



High turnover among underground miners seriously 
hampers productivity and is a threat to miners' safety. 
Therefore, it is important to understand what factors lead 
to miner turnover and what can be done to control it. 
Although there have been no attempts to empirically deter- 
mine the causes of miner turnover, there have been 
numerous attempts to determine the causes for turnover 
among employees of other industries. Using the findings 
from research on employee turnover from other industries 
and what is known about miners and the mining industry, 
a conceptual model of the factors that produce turnover 
among miners was generated. This model posits that the 
factors that determine whether underground miners remain 
with their employer or leave are intent to stay with the pres- 
ent employer, the existence of opportunities to work 
elsewhere, kinship responsibility, career expectations, and 
satisfaction with various aspects of the job. These aspects 



of job satisfaction include job content, pay, coworkers, super- 
visor, physical aspects of the environment, job security, safe- 
ty, and opportunities for family and social activities. Op- 
portunities for controlling miner turnover more effective- 
ly are present within each of several key areas of human 
resource management. Several such opportunities were 
identified and discussed. 

It is recommended that the model of factors believed to 
produce turnover among underground^iners be subjected 
to an empirical test. Given the current level of unemploy- 
ment in the mining industry, it is not feasible to conduct 
such a test at this time. However, more turnover is expected 
as the economy continues to improve. Therefore, it should 
be possible to test the model and provide better advice con- 
cerning the control of miner turnover within the next few 
years. 



23 



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36. Fleishman, E.A., and E.F. Harris. Patterns of Leadership 
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38. Terborg, J., and T. Lee. A Predictive Study of Organizational 
Turnover Rates. Acad. Manage. J., v. 27, No. 4, 1984, pp. 793-810. 

39. Krackhardt, D., J. McKenna, L. Porter, and R. Steers. Super- 
visory Behavior and Employee Turnover: A Field Experiment. 
Acad. Manage. J., v. 24, No. 2, 1981, pp. 249-259. 

40. Mowday, R., and D. Spencer. The Influence of Task and Per- 
sonality Characteristics on Employee Turnover and Absenteeism 
Incidents. Acad. Manage. J., v. 24, No. 3, 1981, pp. 634-642. 

41. Avner, B., S. Guastello, and M. Aderman. The Effect of a 
Realistic Job Preview on Expectancy and Voluntary Versus In- 
voluntary Turnover. J. Psychol., v. Ill, No. 1, 1982, pp. 101-107. 

42. Bardo, J., and R. Ross. The Satisfaction of Industrial Workers 
as Predictors of Production, Turnover, and Absenteeism. J. Soc. 
Psychol., V. 118, 1982, pp. 29-38. 

43. Dreher, G. The Role of Performance in the Turnover Process. 
Acad. Manage. J., v. 25, No. 1, 1982, pp. 137-147. 

44. Zedeck, S., S. Jackson, and E. Summers. Shift Work 
Schedules and Their Relationship to Health, Adaptation, Satisfac- 
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45. McKenna, J.F., P.L. Oritt, and H.K. Wolf. Occupational 
Stress as a Predictor in the Turnover Decision. J. Human Stress, 
V. 7, No. 4, 1981, pp. 12-17. 

46. Keller, R. The Role of Performance and Absenteeism in the 
Prediction of Turnover. Acad. Manage. J., v. 27, No. 1, 1984, pp. 
176-183. 

47. Stumpf, S., and K. H£u1;man. Individual Exploration to 
Organizational Commitment or Withdrawal. Acad. Manage. J., v. 
27, No. 2, 1984, pp. 308-329. 

48. Jackofsky, E.J. Integration of Job Performance in the Predic- 
tion of Turnover: A Process Model. Ph. D. Thesis, Univ. TX, Dallas, 
TX, 1981, 144 pp. 

49. Lefkowitz, J. and M.L. Katz. The Validity of Exit Interviews. 
Pers. Psychol., v. 22, 1969, pp. 445-455. 

50. Ilgen, D. Attendance Behavior: A Re-evaluation of Latham 
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230-233. 

51. Latham, G.P., and E.D. Pursell. Measuring Attendance: A 
Reply to Ilgen. J. Appl. Psychol., v. 62, 1977, pp. 234-236. 

52. Shott, G., L. Albright, and J. Glennon. Predicting Turnover 
in an Automated Office Situation. Pers. Psychol., v. 16, 1963, 
213-219. 

53. Kilbridge, M. Turnover, Absence, and Transfer Rates as In- 
dicators of Employee Dissatisfaction With Repetitive Work. Ind. 
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54. Lefkowitz, J. Differential Validity: Ethnic Group as a 
Moderator in Predicting Tenure. Pers. Psychol., v. 25, 1972, pp. 
223-240. 



24 



55. Fair, J.L., B. O'Leary, and C. Bartlett. Effect of Work Sam- 
ple Test Upon Self-Selection and Turnover of Job Applicants. J. 
Appl. Psychol., V. 58, 1973, pp. 283-285. 

56. Van der Merwe, R., and S. Miller. Near-Terminal Labour 
Turnover: An Analysis of a Crisis Situation. Human Relat., v. 26, 
1973, pp. 415-432. 

57. Ledvinka, J. Race of Employment Interviewer and Reasons 
Given by Black Job Seekers for Leaving Their Jobs. J. Appl. 
Psychol., V. 58, 1973, pp. 362-364. 

58. Director, A., and S. Doctors. Racial Differences in Blue-Collar 
Tiimover Rates. Ind. Relat., v. 15, 1976, pp. 338-342. 

59. Steers, R., and R. Mowday. Employee Turnover and the Post 
Decision Accommodation Process. Ch. in Research in Organiza- 
tional Behavior, ed. by B. Staw and L. Cummings. JAI Press, 1981, 
221 pp. 

60. Schwab, D., and R.L. Oliver. Predicting Tenure With 
Biographical Data: Exhuming Buried Evidence. Pers. Psychol., v. 
27, 1974, pp. 125-128. 

61. Farris, G.F. A Predictive Study of Turnover. Pers. Psychol., 
V. 24, 1971, pp. 311-328. 

62. Wickert, F. Turnover and Employee's Feelings of Ego Evolve- 
ment in the Day-to-Day Operations of a Company. Pers. Psychol., 
V. 4, 1951, pp. 185-197. 

63. Wanous, J.P. Organizational Entry: Newcomers Moving 
From Outside to Inside. Psychol. Bull., v. 84, 1977, pp. 601-618. 

64. Marsh, R., and H. Manari. Organizational Commitment and 
Turnover: A Predictive Study. Admin. Sci. Q., v. 22, 1977, pp. 57-75. 

65. Dalton, D. and W. Todor. Turnover Turned Over: An Expand- 
ed and Positive Perspective. Acad. Manage. Rev., v. 4, 1979, pp. 
225-235. 

66. Van der Merwe, R., and S. Miller. Labor Turnover in the 
South African Footwear Industry. Leather Ind. Res. Inst., Res. Bull. 
535, 1970, 25 pp. 

67. The Measurement of Labor Turnover. Human 

Relat., V. 24, 1971, pp. 233-253. 

68. Byrt, W.J. Methods of Measuring Labor Turnover. Pers. Prac- 
tice Bull., V. 13, 1957, pp. 6-14. 

69. Gaudet, F. Labor Turnover. Am Manage. Assoc, Res. Study 
39, 1960, 55 pp. 

70. Hedberg, M. The Process of Labor Turnover. Swedish Coun- 
cil for Pers. Admin., Rep. 15-67, 1967, 42 pp. 

71. Silcock, H. The Phenomenon of Labor Turnover. J. Royal Stat. 
Soc., Ser. A, Pt. 4, v. 117, 1954, pp. 429-440. 

72. Silcock. H. The Recording and Measurement of Labor Turn- 
over. Pers. Manage., v. 37, No. 1, 1955, pp. 71-78. 

73. U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration (Dep. Labor). 
Injury Experience in Coal Mining. IR 1143, 1984, 310 pp. 



74. Cohn, E., J. Nelson, G. Neuman, M. Lewis, and J. Kaufman. 
The Bituminous Coal Industry: A Forecast. Univ. Park Press, 1975, 
254 pp. 

75. National Coal Association. Facts About Coal, 1984-85. 1984, 
173 pp. 

76. National Academy of Sciences (Natl. Res. Council). Toward 
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77. Goodman, P. Analysis of Miners' Job Attendance and Its 
Relationship to Miners' Accidents and Injuries. Ongoing BuMines 
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burgh, PA. 

78. National Safety Council. Accident Facts. 1984, 111 pp. 

79. Pfeifer, C, J. Stefanski, and C. Grether. Psychological, 
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319 pp.; NTIS PB 275 599. 

80. Goodman, P.S., M.S. Hersh, and C. Zak. Human Resource 
Management Skills and Coal Mine Productivity. Ongoing BuMines 
contract J0133924; for inf., contact J. Peay, TPO, Ind. Safety and 
Training Systems, BuMines, Pittsburgh Res. Center, Pittsburgh, 
PA. 

81. Wanous, J.P. Organizational Entry: Recruitment, Selection, 
and Socialization of Newcomers. Addison- Wesley, 1980, 143 pp. 

82. Henderson, R.I. Compensation Management: Rewarding Per- 
formance. Prentice-Hall, 2d ed., 1979, 536 pp. 

83. Goodman, P.S., and R.S. Atkin. New Concepts of Organiza- 
tional Development. Papter in Erogonomics-Human Factors in Min- 
ing. Proceedings: Bureau of Mines Technology Transfer Seminars, 
Pittsburgh, PA, Dec. 3, 1981, and St. Louis, MO, Dec. 10, 1981, 
comp. by Staff, Pittsburgh Research Center. BuMines IC 8866, 
1981, pp. 84-97. 

84. Woodman, R.W., and J.J. Sherwood. The Role of Team 
Development in Organizational Effectiveness. Psychol. Bull., v. 88, 
1980, pp. 166-186. 

85. Dean, R., and J. Wanous. Effects of Realistic Job Previews 
on Hiring Bank Tellers. J. Appl. Psychol., v. 69, No. 1, 1984, pp. 
61-68. 

86. Mowday, R., C. Koberg, and A. McArthur. The Psychology 
of the Withdrawal Process: A Cross Validation Test of Mobley's 
Intermediate Linkages Model of Turnover in Two Samples. Acad. 
Manage. J., v. 27, No. 1, 1984, pp. 79-94. 

87. Price, J., and C. Mueller. A Causal Model of Turnover for 
Nurses. Acad. Manage. J., v. 24, No. 3, 1981, pp. 543-565. 

88. Stumpf, S., and P.K. Dawley. Predicting Voluntary and In- 
voluntary Turnover Using Absenteeism and Performance Indices. 
Acad. Manage. J., v. 24, No. 1, 1981, pp. 148-163. 



25 



APPENDIX->RESEARCH STUDIES ON EMPLOYEE TURNOVER PUBLISHED 

SINCE 19811 



41. Avner, B., S. Guastello, and M. Aderman. The Effect of a Realistic Job Preview on Expectancy and Volun- 
tary Versus Involuntary Turnover. J. Psychol., v. Ill, No. 1, 1982, pp. 101-107. 



Method 

The sample was 437 applicants for employment as 
cashiers with a midwestern chain of self-service gasoline 
stations during June, July, and August of 1978. The ex- 
perimental group of subjects received a two-page summary 
of the job depicting both positive and negative aspects at 
the same time they were handed the application form. This 
preview was derived empirically, through responses obtain- 
ed from a survey and 40 interviews with existing employees. 
Subjects in both the experimental group and control group 
(who were not given the two-page job preview) completed 
a job expectations questionnaire. 



Results 

The turnover rate for this job was in excess of 500 pet. 
The median tenure was 26 working days. The experimen- 
tal group showed significantly more realistic job expecta- 
tions than the control group did and stayed on the job 
significantly longer than the control group. The difference 
in tenm-e between voluntary and involimtary terminees was 
not statistically different. The authors note that most 
research suggests that realistic job previews have a small, 
positive, but not always significant impact on turnover. 



42. Bardo, J., and R. Ross. The Satisfaction of Industrial Workers as Predictors of Production, Turnover 
and Absenteeism. J. Soc. Psychol., v. 118, 1982, p. 29-38. 



Methods 

The sample was 4,069 employees from 62 departments 
of a major aerospace corporation. Fifty-three percent were 
male. Twenty-six departments were production oriented, 
and the others were involved in production support, 
engineering, administration, and sales. All employees com- 
pleted a questionnaire measuring attitudes toward compen- 
sation, supervision, job commitment, coworkers, work pace, 
job stimulation, job security, and worker trust. Turnover 
was measured for 1 yr after the questionnaire was 
administered. 

Results 

Zero-order correlations indicated the following: Turn- 
over in the production department was significantly cor- 
related to satisfaction with coworkers and compensation in 
the positive direction, i.e., those more satisfied with their 
coworkers and compensation were more likely to leave the 
organization. Turnover in the whole division was 



significantly related to satisfaction with supervision and 
coworkers, job commitment, and perceived job security and 
worker trust. All correlations were relatively low, and all 
but coworker satisfaction were in the expected negative 
direction. Turnover in the nonproduction departments was 
significantly related to job commitment and worker trust 
in the negative direction. The following findings were deter- 
mined using regression analyses: For the division as a 
whole, worker trust and coworker satisfaction were the only 
significant predictors of turnover. For production depart- 
ments, only quality of compensation predicted turnover. For 
nonproduction departments, worker trust and coworker 
satisfaction predicted turnover. This study suggests that 
turnover findings from production workers are not 
generalizable to nonproduction workers and vice versa. 
Nearly all employees expressed relative dissatisfaction with 
their compensation at this organization; thus, compensa- 
tion may have been interpreted by employees as a 
dissatisfier rather than a satisfier. 



85. Dean, R., and J. Wanous. Effects of Realistic Job Previews on Hiring Bank Tellers. J. Appl. Psychol. 
. 69, No. 1, 1984, pp. 61-68. 



Methods 

The sample was 249 newly hired bank tellers. Tellers 
were randomly assigned to one of three job preview groups. 
One group was given both specific and general information, 
another group was given mostly general information, and 
a third group was given no information about the job. Job 
offer acceptance rates were virtually identical across the 
groups, ranging from 69.0 to 71.6 pet. Turnover was 
monitored for the first 43 weeks of employment for all 
tellers. The Job Descriptive Index was administered on each 
teller's first day of work to assess the effects of the previews 

'These studies are listed in alphabetical order by author and are numbered 
in the same manner as in the list of references that precedes the Appendix. 



on initial expectations. Eight weeks after starting their jobs, 
tellers responded to attitude scales that assessed organiza- 
tional commitment, their desire to remain employed at the 
bank, and their perceptions of the bank's honesty and con- 
cern for new employees. Quality of job performance was 
assessed as follows: number of days without errors/number 
of days scheduled. 

Results 

Previews were found to have the expected effects on in- 
itial job expectations; i.e., the "specific realistic" job preview 
group had significantly lower expectations of the desirabili- 
ty of their future jobs than the other groups did. However, 



26 



8 weeks after beginning their jobs, the "specific" preview 
group expressed significantly lower interest in remaining 
at the bank, and had significantly lower opinions of the 
bank's honesty and concern for them than the other two 
groups did. These two results are contrary to what was ex- 
pected. No differences were found between groups in the 
quality of job performance. There were no overall differences 
in job survival rates among the three groups. Contrary to 
predictions, the proportion of tellers who quit during the 
first three weeks on the job (the period of training) was 
significantly greater in the preview group. Conversely, dur- 
ing the 20 weeks following the 3 weeks of training, the pro- 
portion of tellers who left was significantly higher for the 



no-preview group than it wgis for the two realistic preview 
groups. The authors suggest that, by causing tiu-nover to 
occur earlier, diuing training, the realistic job preview was 
able to reduce the bank's replacement costs. The authors 
account for the unexpected effects of the realistic job 
previews as follows: Newcomers in the realistic job preview 
groups were made skeptical about their jobs by the preview, 
and only needed the additional experience and information 
obtained dvu"ing training to conclude that it was time to 
leave. In contrast, the no-preview recruits may have need- 
ed additional experience after training to confirm skeptical 
feelings that were first aroused during training. 



43. Dreher, G. The Role of Performance in the Turnover Process, Acad. Manage. J., v. 5, No. 1, 1982, pp. 137-147. 



Methods 

This study examined performance, potential aptitude, 
and career advancement differences between employees 
who voluntarily resigned and those who stayed with Exxon 
Corp. The sample consisted of 529 technical and professional 
Exxon employees hired since 1964. 

Hypotheses 

Stayers will receive higher initial performance ap- 
praisals than leavers. Initial job level of stayers will be 



higher; stayers will receive higher initial potential 
estimates than leavers; job aptitude, rate of career advance, 
and performance appraisals will be higher for stayers. 

Results 

All hypotheses were supported by statistically signifi- 
cant margins, supporting the notion that Exxon's better per- 
formers were less likely to turn over than their poorer per- 
formers. The highest turnover occurred dviring the fourth 
year of service. Over the 15 yrs, most leavers (57 pet) had 
left within 4 3T"s of being hired. 



46. KeUer, R. The Role of Performance and Absenteeism in the Prediction of Turnover. Acad. Manage. J., 
V. 27, No. 1, 1984, pp. 176-183. 



Hypothesis 

Low performance and high absenteeism Eire predictive 
of tm-nover. 

Methods 



marital status, number of children, tenure, and job level. 
The following personality and organizational variables were 
measured: job satisfaction, group cohesiveness, health locus 
of control, impatience, competitiveness, and intention to 
leave. Voluntary turnover was measured for 12 months and 
found to be 15 pet. 



The sample was 87 hourly clerical, 9 professional, and 
25 supervisory employees from a plant manufacturing com- 
munications equipment for a major corporation. Average 
age was 35. Average length of service was 4 yrs. Forty per- 
cent were female. Performance was measured by superior 
ratings on five dimensions. Absenteeism was measured by 
the frequency of unexcused absences within a 10-month 
period following the questionnaire administration. 
Demographic characteristics included age, education, sex. 



Results 

Low performance and high absenteeism were the best 
predictors of tiu-nover. Other variables significantly related 
to turnover were job stress, competitiveness, lack of 
children, and intention to leave. Absenteeism may play the 
dual role of enabling employees to search for another job 
and to avoid a stressful job situation. 



39. Krackhardt, D., J. McKenna, L. Porter, and R. Steers. Supervisory Behavior and Employee Turnover: 
A Field Experiment. Acad. Manage. J., v. 24, No. 2, 1981, pp. 249-259. 



Methods 

The sample was 50 branch offices of a bank. 25 pairs 
were matched by size, location, and average income level 
of their depositors, then randomly assigned to either the 
experimental or control group. Supervisors in the ex- 
perimental group implemented either 0, 1, or 2 interven- 
tions. One type of intervention was for the supervisor to 
meet informally with each teller individually at least once 



during a 3-month period. The other intervention consisted 
of meeting with the tellers as a group at least four times 
during a 3-month period. The purpose of these meetings was 
to provide an opportunity for the exchange of questions and 
information about work group issues and personal needs, 
and to provide recognition. Tlarnover was measured for 6 
months before the intervention and for 4 months after the 
interventions began. 



27 



Results 

All five experimental branches that implemented both 
interventions experienced almost the same turnover as their 
matched control branches before the intervention, but ex- 
perienced less turnover than the control branches after the 
interventions. However, 6 out of the 13 experimental 
branches that implemented none or only 1 of the 2 interven- 
tions experienced higher turnover than their matched con- 



trol branches. Seven of the experimental branches ex- 
perienced lower tm-nover than their matched control 
branches, and two others did not differ from their matched 
control branches. The experimental bremches implementing 
both objectives held turnover to only 5 pet, while their 
matched control branches experienced 26 pet turnover. The 
effects of the interventions on turnover were not altered by 
controlling for differences in branch efficiencies. 



45. McKenna, J.F., P.L. Oritt, and H.K. Wolf. Occupational Stress as a Predictor in the Turnover Decision. 
J. Human Stress, v. 7, No. 4, 1981, pp. 12-17. 



Methods 

The sample was 175 nurses aides and janitorial and/or 
housekeeping personnel and other nonprofessionals in a 
nursing home facility. Turnover had been approximately 
65 pet in recent years. A questionnaire measuring inten- 
tion to leave, age, job satisfaction, job conunitment, perceiv- 
ed job stress, and several indicators of the perceived work- 
ing environment was administered. Actual tiu^nover was 
not measm-ed. 

Results 

Only stress and age were significant predictors of turn- 



over intention. Respondents with low occupational stress 
had longer expectations regarding their tenure with the 
organization. Age was inversely correlated with expected 
turnover. When stress was used as the dependent variable, 
it was significantly correlated with conunitment, such that 
individuals with greater commitment to the organization 
tended to report elevated stress levels. Regarding an in- 
dividual's position in the hierarchy, it was found that while 
occupational stress was quite evenly distributed across 
levels, employees at higher levels in the organization tended 
to give less consideration to leaving. 



86. Mowday, R., C. Koberg, and A. McArthur. The Psychology of the Withdrawal Process: A Cross Valida- 
tion Test of Mobley's Intermediate Linkages Model of Turnover in Two Samples. Acad. Manage. J., v. 27, No. 
1, 1984, pp. 79-94. 



Methods 



Results 



The sample was 267 employees engaged in entry-level 
patient care positions in three State-run custodial hospitals. 
Average age was 40. Average length of service was 8 yr. 
Seventy -five percent were females. Also included were 302 
employees engaged in entry-level clerical and ad- 
ministrative positions in foiu- agencies of State and county 
government in the Midwest. Average age was 35. Average 
length of service was 5 yr. Eighty-nine percent were female. 
The researchers measured organizational commitment, 
withdrawal cognitions, career mobility cognitions, and 
voluntary turnover (for 1 yr after the questionnaire was 
administered). 



Turnover was 15 pet for the hospital workers and 25 
pet for the clerical sample. The best predictor of turnover 
was the employee's intention to stay in the organization. 
The influence of organizational commitment on turnover 
was indirect, through its impact on withdrawal cognitions. 
Except for commitment to the organization, regression 
analyses failed to double-cross-validate either within or be- 
tween samples. The failure to cross-validate between 
samples may reflect differences in the perceived availability 
of alternative jobs. The general proposition that job at- 
titudes stimulate withdrawal cognitions, which are direct- 
ly related to eventual turnover, was supported. 



40. Mowday, R., and D. Spencer. The influence of Task and Personality Characteristics on Employee Turn- 
over and Absenteeism Incidents. Acad. Manage. J., v. 24, No. 3, 1981, pp. 634-642. 



Hypothesis 

Job scope and turnover are negatively related, with the 
relationship departing from linearity at high levels of job 
scope. "Scope" includes skill variety, autonomy, task iden- 
tity, task significance, and feedback. 

Methods 

The sample was 569 employees in 7 agencies of State 
and county government. Eighty-one percent were female. 
Average age was 37. Average length of service was 6.3 yr. 
The short form of the Job Diagnostic Survey was ad- 



ministered, and turnover data was collected for 1 yr follow- 
ing the survey. 

Results 

R^, the proportionate reduction of total VEiriation in the 
dependent variable associated with a combination of in- 
dependent variables (also known as the coefficient of deter- 
mination), w£is equal to 0.075. Job scope explained the most 
variance in turnover. Need for achievement and need for 
autonomy were also both significantly related to turnover, 
suggesting that job scope can be too high, causing greater 
turnover. 



28 



87. Price, J., and C. Mueller. A Causal Model of Turnover for Nurses. Acad. Manage. J., v. 24, No. 3, 1981, 
pp. 543-565. 



Hypotheses 

Successively higher degrees of intent to stay will like- 
ly produce lower amounts of turnover. Higher job satisfac- 
tion will produce higher intent to stay. Greater opportuni- 
ty will produce higher turnover. More participation, in- 
strumental communication, integration, pay, distributive 
justice, and promotional opportunity will produce higher 
job satisfaction. More general training and kinship respon- 
sibility will produce a stronger intent to stay. 

Methods 

The sample was 764 full-time and 415 part-time nvu-ses 
from 7 hospitals. Questionnaires were mailed to nurses' 
homes in August 1976. The status of their employment as 
of September 1977 was assessed. 



Results 

Nineteen percent volvmtary tiuTiover was observed. The 
zero-order correlations indicate (1) the determinants are 
largely independent of one another and (2) are not strong- 
ly related to tm-nover. The explained variance for turnover 
was 18 pet. Intent to stay was the most significant deter- 
minant, followed by opportunity and general training. Job 
satisfaction had no significant net influence on tm-nover; 
however, it was an important mediating variable. Apparent- 
ly, its influence on turnover was through its effect on com- 
mitment. It is recommended that future studies use 6 
months instead of 12 to test predictive models. However, 
this requires a high turnover rate to have meaningful 
results. 



88. Stumpf, S., and P.K. Dawley. Predicting Voluntary and Involuntary Turnover Using Absenteeism and 
Performance Indices. Acad. Manage. J., v. 24, No. 1, 1981, pp. 148-163. 



Hypotheses 

Unexcused absenteeism will be positively related to 
voluntary turnover. Turnover will be negatively related to 
performance indices. 

Method 

Samples were full-time bards: tellers in a large 
metropolitan area employed during the period 1970-76 
(n = 354) and an independent group of new tellers employed 
during the period 1977-78 (n = 242). The first sample was 
used to predict turnover in the second sample. Independent 
variables were sex, age, education, teniu-e, absenteeism, per- 
formance ratings, teller's daily difference record, and pro- 



motional increases. The dependent variable was employ- 
ment status. 

Results 

Voluntary turnover was 27 percent in the first sample 
and 13 percent in the second. Turnover was lower for 
females than males; negatively related to age and tenure. 
Absenteeism was positively, but nonsignificantly correlated 
with turnover. Tvu^nover was negatively related to dif- 
ference record, promotional increases, and performance 
ratings by statistically significant amounts. Forty-foiu- per- 
cent of the 1977-78 teller turnover could be predicted cor- 
rectly based on the model derived from the 1970-76 data. 



47. Stumpf, S., and K. Hartman. Individual Exploration to Oganizational Commitment or Withdrawal. Acad. 
Manage. J., v. 27, No. 2, 1984, pp. 308-329. 



Hypotheses 

Enfr^*— Environmental exploration leads to obtaining 
and assimilating a greater amount of useful, career rele- 
vant information. Obtaining a greater amount of informa- 
tion about job opportunities and organizations is likely to 
result in expectations regarding the chosen job and 
organization that are more consistent with what is subse- 
quently experienced. Putting forth effort to obtain a greater 
amount of information affects subsequent motivation to 
work in the chosen organization. Realistic expectations at 
the time of choice lead to a greater degree of person-job 
congruence. 

Socialization— Achieving a greater degree of person-job 
congruence will result in more perceived influence in 
designing one's work role, better perceived work perfor- 
mance, more work satisfaction, and greater work motiva- 
tion. Exerting more job-unit influence will result in greater 
organizational commitment and more feelings of effective 
work performance. Motivation to perform leads to higher 
levels of perceived work performance, which subsequently 
leads to satisfaction with work. 



Commitment— Self perception of work performance is 
related to later feelings of organizational commitment. Com- 
mitment leads to less intention to quit. Work satisfaction 
negatively influences intention to quit. The "intention to 
quit leading to turnover" relationship is moderated by labor 
market and economic conditions. Greater enviroimiental ex- 
ploration leads to increased tm-nover. 

Method 

Sample was 157 college students about to enter the job 
market. Data were collected 2 to 3 months prior to entry, 
2 to 3 months aifter entry, and 8 to 9 months after entry. 
Voluntary turnover was 15 people. 

Results 

Work satisfaction and organizational commitment were 
significant predictors of intention to quit. Intention to quit 
significantly predicted environmental exploration, but not 
turnover. Environmental exploration was strongly related 
to turnover. All hypotheses were generally supported ex- 



29 



cept the intention-to-tumover relationship. This may reflect 
bad economic conditions. It was concluded that developing 



expectations that parallel reality- 
met— may reduce turnover. 



-even if they are not 



38. Terborg, J., and T. Lee. A Predictive Study of Organizational Turnover Rates. Acad. Manage. J., v. 27, 
No. 4, 1984, pp. 793-810. 



Hypotheses 

Employees located in areas with high demands for labor 
will have higher voluntary turnover rate than those in areas 
with low demands. Turnover rates will vary with organiza- 
tion size, although the exact relationship is not specified. 
Voluntary turnover rates will be negatively correlated with 
employee descriptions of organizational supportiveness and 
perceived opportunities to participate in decisions affecting 
one's work. Voluntary turnover will be negatively cor- 
related with average age, average length of service with 
organization, and time in position. Tiu-nover will be 
positively correlated with average level of education and 
ability. 



Method 

Sample was full-time retail sales personnel from 65 
stores during 1977 and 1978. Turnover data was collected 
for 12 months following an attitude siu^ey measxu"ing 
climate. 

Results 

Tiu-nover rates did not systematically vary with size of 
store, or perceived amount of supportiveness or perceived 
opportunity to participate in decisions affecting one's work. 
Turnover was positively associated with local labor demand 
and average level of education and ability; and negatively 
associated with average age, tenure, and time in present 
position. 



44. Zedeck, S., S. Jackson, and E. Summers. Shift Work Schedules and Their Relationship to Health, Adapta- 
tion, Satisfaction, and Turnover Intention. Acad. Manage. J., v. 26, No. 2, 1983, pp. 297-310. 



Method 

The sample was 732 employees from 66 plants of a 
western power and gas utility. Ninety-six percent were 
male, 84 pet were white, 79 pet were married, and 43 pet 
were between 25 and 34 yr old. Fifty -nine percent had been 
rotating for 1 to 14 jrr, 15 pet had rotated for less than 1 
yr, and 26 pet had rotated for more than 14 jrr. 

A questionnaire was administered which measured the 
dependent variables: health, satisfaction with current rota- 
tion policy, preference for retaining or changing schedule, 
and intention to stay with the organization; and the in- 
dependent variables— various health complaints, job 
satisfaction, satisfaction with family, social activities, etc., 
perceived work environment, and irrascibility. 



Results 

Turnover intentions were positively correlated with 
digestion problems, muscle pains, heart problems, en- 
thusiasm, tension, tiredness, and irrascibility. They were 
negatively correlated with intrinsic and extrinsic job 
satisfaction; satisfaction with opportunities for solitary, 
social, and family activities; perceived supervisory style; 
task characteristics; performance-reward system; coworker 
relations; employee work motivation; equipment; employee 
competence; decision making; work space; pressure; and 
responsibility. All correlations were statistically significant. 



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